UFC 254 Card Odds: Alexander Volkov vs. Walt Harris Prediction

This is an intriguing matchup as these fighters have two totally different styles.  No. 7 Volkov uses his smooth feet to keep the distance, while No. 10 Harris is a first round KO specialist.  Volkov is the favourite on the MMA odds at -195.

Volkov vs. Harris UFC Betting Odds

Alexander Volkov UFC 254 Odds

The 32-year-old Volkov needs a win in this fight to stay relevant.  He is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Curtis Blaydes in July and has lost two of his last three fights.  Although his only win in the last two years was a unanimous decision over Greg Hardy last November, a win on Saturday puts him back into heavyweight contention.

Volkov is a unique heavyweight, often taking his time and relying on superior footwork and reach to breakdown his opponents.  He doesn’t pack the power of an average heavyweight, but he lands more shots, averaging 6.19 significant strikes landed per minute, compared to 2.96 for Harris.  Volkov is also the superior grappler with a 75 per cent takedown accuracy, compared to 33 per cent from Harris.  If Volkov can use his three-inch reach advantage to keep the distance between Harris and survive the first round, his odds to win this fight increase significantly.

Walt Harris UFC 254 Odds

Harris is coming off a second round TKO loss to Alistair Overeem in May, but the 37-year-old fighter is a knockout specialist, with all of his wins by coming by KO/TKO, usually in the first round.  He has fought five times in the last two years and pulled out three wins, one loss and one no contest.

For as big of fighter as Harris is, he is surprisingly quick and moves well laterally.  He will likely come hard early, as his average fight time is just 6:35, compared to 15 minutes for Volkov.  He has a slight edge in significant strike defense (61 per cent for Harris, 58 per cent for Volkov), but it’s his superior power that will serve him best.  If Harris can close the gap and get in close to Volkov early, he has a great chance for another KO and will jump up the heavyweight rankings.

Volkov vs. Harris UFC 254 Prediction

There is a long line to get a title shot against heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic and a win in this fight won’t put either fighter at the top of that list.  A loss, however, likely drops either of these fighters out of the Top-10.  Look for Harris to avoid this fate by coming out hard and fast and likely picking up an early KO.