UFC 251 Card Odds: Petr Yan vs. Jose Aldo Prediction

Payton Matthews | Updated Jul 09, 2020

Petr Yan, 2020

Petr Yan is the -245 favourite at Sports Interaction taking on Jose Aldo for the vacated bantamweight championship at UFC 251 Fight Island.

The first of three title fights on the stacked UFC 251 card from Fight Island in Abu Dhabi on Saturday night (Eastern time) features Petr Yan taking on Jose Aldo for the vacated bantamweight championship. Yan is a -245 favourite on the MMA odds with Aldo at +180.

Henry Cejudo had been the bantamweight king – he hadn’t fought either Yan or Aldo – but surprisingly retired after a successful defence against Dominick Cruz at UFC 249 in May. Yan is ranked No. 3 in the division (behind Marlon Moraes and Aljamian Sterling) and Aldo sixth. Yan and Aldo used to train together in Brazil.

The 27-year-old Yan (14-1) is from Russia and on a nine-fight winning streak. His lone loss came to Magomed Magomedov via split decision in the Absolute Championship Akhmat organization (Yan was a bantamweight champion in that) in March 2016. Yan then got payback vs. Magomedov in April 2017 by unanimous decision.

Yan vs. Aldo UFC 251 Odds

“No Mercy” made his UFC debut in June 2018 with a first-round TKO of Teruto Ishihara and last was in the Octagon in December when he beat Urijah Faber by third-round KO (head kick). Yan has seven career wins by decision, six by KO/TKO and one by submission. His UFC fights average 11:32. Yan averages 5.65 significant strikes landed per minute (absorbs 3.15) and 1.73 takedowns per 15 minutes with 53 per cent accuracy. His takedown defence is 87 per cent. The favoured method of victory overall Saturday is Yan by KO/TKO/DQ at +120.

Aldo (28-6), 33 and from Brazil, is a UFC legend at featherweight. In fact, he was the inaugural champion in that division as he brought the WEC title with him when the two organizations merged. Aldo first won that belt in November 2009 with a second-round TKO of Mike Thomas Brown and made nine successful defences of it before losing to Conor McGregor just 13 seconds into their December 2015 fight.

UFC 251 - Jose Aldo v Petr Yan

  • Petr Yan -230
  • Jose Aldo +170

That loss started a bit of a downward trend for Aldo as “Junior” is 3-5 in his past eight, although he has fought top-level talent in all of them – including Moraes (lost via split decision in December 2019) and current featherweight king Alexander Volkanovski (lost via unanimous decision in May 2019. Aldo is attempting to become only the eighth fighter in UFC history to win a title in multiple divisions.

His UFC fights average 13:14 and he lands 3.47 significant strikes per minute (absorbs 3.18) as well as 0.64 takedowns per 15 minutes with 65 per cent accuracy. Aldo’s takedown defence is 91 per cent. He usually wins by KO/TKO (61 per cent), while 50 per cent of his losses are via KO/TKO. Aldo winning by KO/TKO/DQ on Saturday is +395.

UFC 251 Fight Island Predictions: Yan vs. Aldo

The over-under for total rounds is 2.5, with the over a -190 favourite. That it goes the five-round distance is +115 with no at -145. Aldo has a three-inch reach advantage but is six years older. Yan wins the bantamweight title by third-round KO/TKO.