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UFC 249 Odds: Henry Cejudo vs. Dominick Cruz Prediction

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The co-main event of a very deep UFC 249 card on Saturday night from VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Fla., features bantamweight champion Henry Cejudo defending his belt against Dominick Cruz. The main card begins at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view and there will be no fans in attendance. Here’s a look at the UFC odds and our prediction on this one.

Henry Cejudo vs. Dominick Cruz UFC 249 Odds

The 33-year-old Cejudo (15-2) was originally to face Jose Aldo, but the Brazilian had some issues with travel due to the coronavirus. Aldo is a former great champion who is passed his prime. The same argument could be made about the 35-year-old Cruz (22-2), who hasn’t fought in three-and-a-half years.

Cejudo is a former Olympic gold medalist wrestler for Team USA in the 2008 Games in China. He was also was a four-time state wrestling champion in high school. “The Messenger” made his MMA debut in 2013 and his UFC debut in December 2014.

UFC 249 - Dominick Cruz v Henry Cejudo

  • Henry Cejudo -210
  • Dominick Cruz +160

His first title shot came at flyweight against Demetrious Johnson at UFC 197, but Cejudo lost by first-round TKO (knees to the body). He got a rematch with Johnson at UFC 227 and won a very entertaining split decision to become the first Olympic gold medalist from any country to win a UFC title.

Cejudo defended that flyweight title next time out with a first-round TKO victory (punches) just 32 seconds in against TJ Dillashaw. Next up, Cejudo fought Marlon Moraes in June 2019 at UFC 238 for the vacant bantamweight title, and Cejudo won by third-round TKO to become the fourth UFC fighter to hold championships simultaneously in two weight divisions. A few months later, Cejudo decided to forego the flyweight belt and stick at bantamweight. He hasn’t fought since facing Moraes due to injury.

Even though Cejudo has a stellar wrestling career, he hasn’t won a fight by submission – eight by KO/TKO and seven by decision. He is +130 on the MMA odds page to win by decision and +250 by KO, TKO or disqualification.

Cruz is a bantamweight legend, a former WEC and UFC champion. However, his career has been ravaged by injuries with three long layoffs. He was last in the Octagon at UFC 207 – how long ago was that? Ronda Rousey was in the headline bout! – and lost his belt in a unanimous defeat to Cody Garbrandt.

UFC 249 Predictions: Henry Cejudo vs. Dominick Cruz

A total of 64 per cent of wins by “the Dominator” are by decision, 32 per cent by KO/TKO, and Cruz has just one submission victory. That he wins here by decision is +290 with KO, TKO or disqualification at +1000.

On the “when will the fight end” prop, going the distance is a -180 favourite. The over/under round total is 4.5, with the over a -205 leader.

Ring rust could be a major factor here. Cejudo by decision at +130 is probably your best bet.