UFC 239 Jon Jones vs. Thiago Santos: Odds, Predictions and Picks

Each year, the UFC stages one of its best cards around the July 4 holiday in the United States. That’s certainly the case this Saturday from Las Vegas as UFC 239 has two title fights, headlined by Jon Jones vs. Thiago Santos. The main card is expected to begin at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view. Here’s a look at it and the MMA odds.

Jon Jones (24-1) vs. Thiago Santos (21-6)

Division: Light heavyweight

UFC odds: Jones -575, Santos +390

Prediction: Jones by decision

Jones puts his light-heavyweight belt on the line, with many in the world of mixed martial arts believing he might be the most talented fighter of all-time. Jones has never been knocked down or submitted in MMA competition. The 31-year-old American’s only loss was way back on December 2009 via disqualification (illegal elbows) vs. Matt Hamill in the “Ultimate Fight 10 finale.” So Jones technically has never been actually beaten. His problem is staying out of trouble out of the Octagon and testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs, which he has done twice and been suspended twice for. Jones was last in the Octagon in March and beat Anthony Smith by lopsided unanimous decision. There’s some talk that if Jones wins here, he might fight heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier, a guy Jones already has beaten twice but had one changed to a no contest because of a positive Jones drug test.

Santos, a 35-year-old from Brazil ranked No. 2 in the division (Cormier is No. 1), has won four straight and eight of his last nine but has fought just so-so competition. He took out Jan Blachowicz by third-round TKO (punches) in April to earn his first-ever title shot. A total of 71 per cent of Santos’ wins are by KO or TKO and just one victory by submission. Jones and Santos have Smith as a common opponent, with Santos beating Smith by second-round TKO in February 2018.

Amanda Nunes (17-4) vs. Holly Holm (12-4)

Division: Women’s bantamweight

UFC odds: Nunes -345, Holm +240

Prediction: Nunes by KO/TKO

Nunes, from Brazil, is the women’s bantamweight (and featherweight) champion and clearly the top pound-for-pound female fighter going right now with dominant wins over the likes of Valentina Shevchenko, Miesha Tate, Germaine de Randamie and Ronda Rousey. Nunes hasn’t lost since September 2014 to Cat Zingano. The “Lioness” comes off a December 2018 first-round knockout over former women’s pound-for-pound queen Cris Cyborg. Holm, an American, burst into the spotlight with one of the biggest upsets in UFC history, knocking out Rousey at UFC 193. However, Holm has just two wins in six fights since. She has lost to Cyborg, de Randamie, Shevchenko and Tate in that span. Holm is essentially only a boxer, which limits her. She has never won a fight by submission.

Jorge Masvidal (33-13) vs. Ben Askren (19-0)

Division: Welterweight

UFC odds: Askren -235, Masvidal +175

Prediction: Askren by decision

Matchup of Americans, with Masvidal ranked fourth in the welterweight division and Askren fifth – Kamaru Usman is the current champion. Askren, a former Olympic wrestler, was a long-time Bellator fighter who then went to the One Championship organization before making his UFC debut in Mach and beating Robbie Lawler by first-round technical submission. Masvidal is a former lightweight who stopped a two-fight losing streak by upsetting Darren Till in March by second-round KO in England. Askren was at that fight to publicly challenge the winner. If Askren gets to 20-0, the UFC almost has to give him a shot at Usman.

Jan Blachowicz (23-8) vs. Luke Rockhold (16-4)

Division: Light heavyweight

UFC odds: Rockhold -180, Blachowicz +140

Prediction: Rockhold by decision

Rockhold, an American, is a former middleweight champion (in the UFC and Strikeforce) still ranked third in that division but moving up to light heavyweight. Due to injuries, he hasn’t fought since February 2018 when Rockhold lost by third-round knockout to Yoel Romero. Rockhold won the middleweight belt in December 2015 by beating Chris Weidman but lost his first defence against Michael Bisping. All four of Rockhold’s losses are by KO/TKO. Blachowicz, from Poland, is off a loss to Thiago Santos in February by third-round TKO. That ended a four-fight winning streak for Blachowicz.

Diego Sanchez (30-11) vs. Michael Chiesa (15-4)

Division: Welterweight

UFC odds: Chiesa -330, Sanchez +240

Prediction: Chiesa by submission

All-American fight here with neither ranked in the welterweight division. Chiesa stopped a two-fight losing streak last December with a second-round submission of Carlos Condit in his first fight at welterweight after moving from lightweight. Chiesa clearly prefers fights on the ground as 11 of his 15 wins are by submission and none by KO or TKO. Sanchez has won back-to-back fights and knocked out Mickey Gall in the second round in March. Sanchez is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt.