UFC 236 Holloway vs. Poirier 2: Main Card Odds and Predictions
How’s this for a week of available betting action: The NCAA basketball national championship game, the Masters, start of the NHL and NBA playoffs, the usual baseball action, and on Saturday night from Atlanta two interim title fights at UFC 236. The main card is expected to begin at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view. Here’s a look at the title bouts and their Sports Interaction UFC betting odds.
Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier
Records: Holloway (20-3), Poirier (24-5)
Division: Lightweight
UFC Odds: Holloway -225, Poirier +170
Prediction: Holloway by KO/TKO
This should be a brutal fight as exactly half of Holloway’s career wins are by knockout or TKO and so are half of Poirier’s. It’s for the interim lightweight title. That champion is Khabib Nurmagomedov, but he’s currently suspended for all those hijinks following his title-winning fight over Conor McGregor last October. Khabib recently has made noise about returning to the Octagon in September in Abu Dhabi, and presumably against Saturday’s winner. Khabib also has admitted he prefers to fight Holloway: “If he beats Poirier it will be 14 wins in a row, which is the longest active winning streak in the UFC. … He will also be a two-weight champion. Fans would also be more interested in a Holloway fight.”
Indeed, Holloway is the featherweight champion but moving up in weight. “Blessed” won that belt at UFC 212 with an upset of legendary Jose Aldo and then beat Aldo again at UFC 218. Holloway last defended at UFC 231 and beat Brian Ortega by fourth-round TKO (doctor stoppage). That’s four straight wins by TKO. Holloway’s last loss was to McGregor in August 2013. It’s the first-ever title fight for the 30-year-old Poirier, who is the third-ranked lightweight. He is unbeaten in his past five since a loss to Michael Johnson in September 2016 — Poirier also has a loss to McGregor on his career resume.
“Diamond” was a heavy favourite against a 20-year-old Holloway making his UFC debut in February 2012, and Poirier won by first-round submission. It’s the only time Holloway has lost that way, with his other two by decision.
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Israel Adesanya
Records: Gastelum (15-3), Adesanya (16-0)
Division: Middleweight
UFC Odds: Adesanya -185, Gastelum +145
Prediction: Adesanya by KO/TKO
This is for the interim middleweight belt. Champion Robert Whittaker was supposed to fight Gastelum in February but had to have emergency hernia surgery as well as for a collapsed bowel. Whittaker thus should fight Saturday’s winner later this summer assuming good health.
Gastelum is ranked fourth in the division and has won back-to-back fights over Ronaldo Souza and Michael Bisping since a loss to Chris Weidman. Canadians may remember that Gastelum beat Johny Hendricks at UFC 200 by unanimous decision. Gastelum, whose strength is actually wrestling, landed a whopping 124 significant strikes on Hendricks that night.
Adesanya is ranked fifth in the division. He is off a unanimous decision victory over one of the all-time greats, Anderson Silva, in February. That’s nice and all, but Silva is way past his prime. Adesanya is a striking machine (has never landed a takedown in the UFC) with 13 of his 16 wins by KO or TKO. He has landed 306 significant strikes out of 568 attempts in his five UFC bouts.