Santos vs. Teixeira Prediction: UFC Vegas 13 Odds

Saturday’s main event features No. 1 light heavyweight contender Thiago Santos set to return after a 16-month layoff, against No. 3 contender Glover Teixeira.  Santos is the early favourite at -270 on the MMA odds, while Teixeira comes in at +195.

Santos vs. Teixeira Betting Odds

Thiago Santos 

After major knee surgery and a layoff of almost a year and a half, this is 36-year-old Santos’ (21-7) chance to vault himself back into light heavyweight title contention.  Santos is coming off a split decision loss at UFC 239 in July 2019 to one of the best pound-for-pound fighters on the planet in Jon Jones, becoming the first fighter to ever win a judge’s scorecard against Jones.  Before the loss to Jones, Santos was on a four-fight win streak, including winning his first three light heavyweight fights by KO/TKO after jumping up from middleweight in 2018.

Santos is a dynamic striker with strong power that delivers devastating blows.  His 11 UFC KO/TKO’s is tied for second all time and he is actually tied with Anderson Silva for most KO/TKOs in UFC middleweight history with eight.  Santos’ striking is a constant threat.  He averages 4.44 significant strikes per minute (Teixeira averages 3.74), with each strike possessing powerful knockout potential.  With superior technical skill and strength, Santos defends well against grappling, with a takedown defence of 68 per cent, compared to 60 per cent for Teixeira.

The biggest question mark in this fight is Santos’ knee.  He suffered a torn LCL, PCL, MCL and meniscus in his knee (among other injuries) in the Jon Jones fight.  There is certain to be some rust, the question is can he overcome it or is this the beginning of the end for this dangerous knockout threat?

Glover Teixeira 

Despite his age, the 41-year-old Teixeira (31-7) has looked dominant over the past couple of years.  He comes into this fight riding a four-fight win streak and last fought in May, picking up a fifth-round TKO over Anthony Smith.  Grappling is key to Teixeira’s game.  He is tied for both the most finishes in the UFC light heavyweight division with 11 and the most submissions with 5.

Teixeira is a patient and more technically sound fighter than his opponent.  He waits for openings and is always threatening for submissions.  Teixeira has a better takedown average per 15 minutes (1.87 for Teixeira, 0.83 for Santos), better submission average per 15 minutes (0.9 for Teixeira, 0.1 for Santos) and still manages an identical 47 per cent significant strike rate to Santos.

Teixeira is a veteran fighter competing against an opponent coming off a major knee injury.  Can he use his stronger technical skills to outmaneuver Santos, or will Santos’ power be too much for Teixeira to handle?

Santos vs. Teixeira UFC Vegas 13 Prediction

Don’t expect this fight to go the distance, as it will likely end in either a Santos KO/TKO win or a Teixeira submission win.  Teixeira is the more technical fighter and will try to wait out Santos for the first round or two, but Santos’ power should prove too much.  It’s looking like an early round KO/TKO win for Santos.