Nate Diaz vs. Tony Ferguson: UFC 279 Odds, Prediction
The UFC was forced to scramble at the last minute to save Saturday’s UFC 279 main card after Khamzat Chimaev badly missed weight for the intended main event of Chimaev vs. Nate Diaz. Diaz, in what is almost certainly his final UFC fight, will now face No. 11 contender Tony Ferguson in a welterweight main event, while Chimaev has been dropped to a catchweight bout in the co-main event.
This fight opened as essentially a pick’em on the MMA odds, but is now leaning towards Ferguson being a slight favourite to win.
Nate Diaz UFC 279 Odds
As mentioned, this is likely Diaz’s final fight in the UFC as he has well-documented issues with UFC president Dana White and this is the last fight on his contract. Diaz is one of the most popular fighters in UFC history, but there are rumblings he could be working to establish some sort of rival promotion.
The Stockton, California native is 20-13 in a professional MMA career that began in 2004. He has fought almost every big name in the lightweight and welterweight divisions and has wins over legendary fighters like Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone, Anthony Pettis and of course, Conor McGregor. The 37-year-old actually lost the rematch against McGregor, but those two fights are arguably two of the most popular in UFC history.
Diaz can win in any way, which is part of the reason why he has always been so popular. He has 11 career wins by submission, five by KO/TKO and four by decision. He is also tied with Joe Lauzon for third-most career UFC bonus awards, with 15 in total. Diaz has fought sporadically over the last six years, taking a three-year break after the second McGregor fight and only fighting twice since 2019. He’s riding a two-fight losing streak after falling to Jorge Masvidal by doctor’s stoppage in 2019 and ending up on the wrong side of a unanimous decision result against current welterweight champion Leon Edwards in 2021.
Diaz averages 4.51 significant strikes landed per minute with 45 per cent accuracy. He absorbs 3.73 strikes with 52 per cent defence. He also averages 1.1 takedowns per 15 minutes with 30 per cent accuracy and 40 per cent takedown defence. Can Diaz leave the Octagon on a winning note?
Tony Ferguson UFC 279 Odds
This is a long awaited return to welterweight for Ferguson, who hasn’t fought in the 170-pound division since winning the welterweight competition on season 13 of The Ultimate Fighter in 2011. He is 25-7 in a professional MMA career that dates back to 2008.
“El Cucuy” is 14-5 the UFC. He won the interim lightweight title at UFC 216 in 2017, but he was later stripped of the title due to injury. Ferguson’s most notable victories include wins over Pettis and “Cowyboy” Cerrone and Rafael dos Anjos, all picked up on a massive 12-fight winning streak between 2013 and 2019.
It’s been tough for the 38-year-old over the last couple of years, however, as he’s riding a four-fight losing streak. Ferguson lost to Justin Gaethje and Charles Oliveira in 2020 and Beneil Dariush in 2021. His last fight was in May when he was knocked out by Michael Chandler early in the second round.
Ferguson has 12 career wins by KO/TKO, eight by submission and five by decision. He’ll hold a slight half-inch reach advantage and 2.5-inch leg reach advantage against Diaz. The 38-year-old averages 5.12 significant strikes landed per minute with 45 per cent accuracy. He absorbs 3.81 strikes with 58 per cent defence. He also averages 0.41 takedowns per 15 minutes with 42 per cent accuracy and 66 per cent takedown defence. Will it be a triumphant return to welterweight for Ferguson?
UFC 279 Prediction: Nate Diaz vs. Tony Ferguson
The blessing in disguise of the main card shakeup is this new main event between two legendary UFC veterans. Diaz was a sizeable underdog against Chimaev, but it’s anyone’s fight now. While it would be nice to see Diaz go out on a high note, I give the slight edge to Ferguson as he has stayed more active over the last few years, albeit in losing efforts. Ferguson wins by decision.