McGregor vs. Cowboy: UFC 246 Odds and Predictions

He takes on Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone. That fight, shown on pay-per-view, likely will get underway around 11:30 p.m. ET.  Here’s a preview (no Canadians on the main card overall).

Conor McGregor (21-4) vs. Donald Cerrone (36-13)

Division: Welterweight

There’s no question that McGregor is the most popular MMA fighter in the world, partly for what he has done in his career as a fighter but also because of many issues outside the Octagon. What’s the old saying: “There’s no such thing as bad publicity?” For a fighter, that’s essentially true.

McGregor is one of only a few UFC fighters to ever hold two belts at once. He first won the featherweight belt in July 2015 with a second-round TKO of Chad Mendes. McGregor defended it with a stunning first-round knockout of featherweight legend Jose Aldo later that year but then moved up to welterweight to face Nate Diaz in a non-title fight.  Diaz was the surprise winner in March 2016, but the two fought again in August of that year and McGregor won via majority decision in a war.

Those two fights really put McGregor on the map, and he added the lightweight belt with a second-round TKO victory over Eddie Alvarez in November 2016. That’s the last time McGregor won a fight. Of course, he became a cultural icon in August 2017 by fighting unbeaten boxing legend Floyd Mayweather Jr. – an even bigger cultural icon – in the ring. McGregor acquitted himself well in the loss and recently has said he’d like another boxing chance at Mayweather.

“Notorious” hasn’t been in the Octagon since October 2018 when he was upset by unbeaten Khabib Nurmagomedov via fourth-round submission in a lightweight title fight (McGregor had been stripped of the featherweight belt due to inactivity). Both Khabib and McGregor were then suspended due to a post-fight brawl between the two camps. McGregor could have returned months ago but he “retired,” had a child and was involved in some business interests. He says he’s fully committed to fighting again and wants a rematch with Khabib, which is expected to happen later this year. Sports Interaction already has odds on that: Khabib is -320 and McGregor +230. First things first: Khabib defends his lightweight belt in April at UFC 249 vs. No. 1 contender Tony Ferguson. Khabib is -225 and Ferguson +165.

The 36-year-old Cerrone is probably looking at his last big payday/main event fight as “Cowboy” is on a two-fight losing streak. The American lost by first-round TKO last September to Justin Gaethje and by second-round TKO to Ferguson in June 2019. Cerrone has 23 victories in the UFC overall, an organization record, but that’s more because he fights so often – four times in 2019 alone. Cerrone has gotten one title shot in his long career, losing at lightweight to Rafael dos Anjos in 2015.

This is scheduled for five rounds as the main event and despite not a title fight. The over/under is 2.5 rounds, with the under a -225 favourite. The favoured method of victory is McGregor by KO, TKO or disqualification at -175. A total of 18 of McGregor’s wins are by KO or TKO. All four of his losses are by submission. Cerrone winning by submission is +600; 47 per cent of his career wins are via submission. Six of Cerrone’s losses have come by KO/TKO and six by decision. The other by submission.

McGregor vs. Cowboy Prediction

Prediction: McGregor by KO/TKO in Round 3.

Sports Interaction also has round betting options. McGregor winning in Round 3 as predicted above is +800.