Magomed Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker: UFC 294 Odds, Prediction
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Edgar Chaput
UFC 294 will culminate with a lightweight title fight, but before then the event features a plethora of alluring matches, most notably Magomed Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker, who will contest in a heavy lightweight battle of their own.
The Russian Ankalaev is currently perched as a -357 favourite to win on the MMA odds. Walker is presently priced at +275.
Magomed Ankalaev UFC 294
Losing is not something Magomed Ankalaev is familiar with given his illustrious 18-1-1 professional record. The 31-year-old Russian native, who still fights out of his homeland, is on a beguiling winning streak. Several of his most recent victories have come via unanimous decisions.
Whether it was against Nikita Krylov at UFC Fight Night 186, Volkan Oezdemir at UFC 267, Thiago Santos at UFC Fight Night 203, he’s consistently impressed the judges enough to grant him victories. One of the rare blemishes on his record, a controversial one at that, was in his last fight almost a year ago. In December 2022 he was pitted against Jan Blachowicz for the vacant light heavyweight belt. Of the 25 media outlets who covered the event, 23 scored Ankalaev favourably, and yet the bout ended in a split draw.
Reach is not a category in which the Russian fighter will have the edge this Saturday, his being only 75 inches to Johnny Walker’s 82. It’s also been a while since Ankalaev earned a win via an old-school knockout (there was one TKO not too long ago). 56 per cent of his total wins come that way, with 44 per cent earned through favourable judges’ decisions, even though recently the latter has applied much more. His fights take longer, averaging 12:26 to his opponent’s 7:17. Where things get interesting is in the hits departments. The numbers are very comparable. Chief among the similarities is his 3.55 significant strikes per minute to Walker’s 3.85.
Johnny Walker UFC 294
Hailing from the Rio de Janeiro region in Brazil, Johnny Walker has lost more fights than his opposite number this week, but he’s also partaken in more bouts overall. Still, 21-7 is not a record to sneeze at.
The Brazilian native is also riding the high of multiple consecutive successes. The past 12 months have been terrific, starting in September of last year when he took down Ion Cutelaba with a rear-choke submission at UFC 279. A few months later in January Walker handled Paul Craig via TKO at UFC 283. Most recently Anthony Smith was his victim, with the judges siding with Walker at UFC on ABC 4 this past May.
If the rate at which Ankalaev finishes off rivals via KO and TKO seems high, consider Johny Walker, who does so 76 per cent of the time. Only 10 per cent of his wins are courtesy of submission, with the balance earned through the judges. As we’ve established, his reach is superior to the Russian’s, but the latter has the edge in leg reach (46 inches to 44.5). Not only are their significant strike numbers similar, but so too are the percentages (56 per cent for the Brazilian, 52 for the Russian). Neither absorbs many licks per 60 seconds either, with Walker eating 2.58 and Ankalaev 2.15. Walker doesn’t do many takedowns (only 0.51 every 15 minutes), but his accuracy is a perfect 100 per cent.