Kevin Lee vs. Rinat Fakhretdinov: UFC Fight Night Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews
June 28, 2023

The final fight of the UFC Fight Night preliminary card from Las Vegas on Saturday is from the welterweight division as Kevin Lee faces Rinat Fakhretdinov.

Fakhretdinov is a -200 favourite on the MMA odds, while Lee is at +155.

Rinat Fakhretdinov -245
Kevin Lee +185

Kevin Lee UFC Fight Night Odds

Leon Edwards is the current welterweight champion with the 30-year-old Lee, from Michigan, at 19-7 in a pro career dating to 2012. He isn’t ranked in the division but is a former lightweight champion of the TWC PRO Series. He won that title in his final bout before joining the UFC ahead of a February 2014 debut where he lost to Al Iaquinta.

“The Motown Phenom” has gotten a title shot in the UFC, losing to Tony Ferguson for the lightweight title via third-round submission at UFC 216. Think it’s fair to say that Lee will not get another shot anytime in the near future as he enters having lost four of six. In December 2021, he signed a four-fight contract with Eagle FC. That didn’t work out as Lee’s lone fight with that organization was in March 2022 where he beat UFC Hall of Famer Diego Sanchez by unanimous decision. Lee hasn’t fought since and in February it was announced he had signed a new deal with the UFC.

“I can win that welterweight strap,” Lee said to TMZ. “Leon Edwards got it right now. I can outwrestle that man and win that strap, so I’m chasing that title now.”

The 5-foot-9 Lee has a reach of 77 inches and his fights average 12:01. He lands 3.89 significant strikes per minute with 42 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.56 with 50 per cent defence. Lee’s takedown average is 3.19 per 15 minutes with 43 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 75 per cent. He has eight wins by decision and eight by submission, with three by KO/TKO. Lee has three losses each by submission and decision and one by KO/TKO.

For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by decision at +250, followed by submission at +450 and KO/TKO/DQ at +1400. A draw is +6600.

Rinat Fakhretdinov UFC Fight Night Odds

The 31-year-old Fakhretdinov hails from Moscow – he is the first Tatarstan fighter to compete in the UFC — and is 20-1 in a pro career dating to 2013. Despite that sterling record, the Russian is not ranked in the division in part because he’s new to the UFC with only two fights under his belt.

In June 2022, “Gladiator” beat Andreas Michailidis by unanimous decision in his UFC debut and followed that up last December with a unanimous decision win over Bryan Battle for a 19th straight victory. Fakhretdinov landed seven takedowns and outstruck Battle 102-25. His only loss was in his second pro fight in June 2013 to Aigun Akhmedov in the Warrior’s Honor series.

“I feel really good about getting fights more often now. Before, I didn’t fight as often. Now I get fights much more often and I’m really happy about it. This has been my dream. I’m fighting in the UFC and I’m really happy about it,” Fakhretdinov said following his win over Battle. “It’s now the time of new fighters, of new heroes. It’s time to remove the old fighters, the gatekeepers, from the top 15. With my hands here, I’ll clean it up and I’ll make sure to get there.”

The 6-foot Fakhretdinov has a reach of 74 inches and his fights average 15:00. He lands 2.93 significant strikes per minute with 68 per cent accuracy and absorbs 0.70 per minute with 57 per cent defence. He lands 6.00 takedowns per 15 minutes with 63 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 100 per cent.

His favoured margin of victory is decision at +175, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +475 and submission at +500. That the fight does the distance (three rounds) is -120 with no at -110.