Jose Aldo vs. Pedro Munhoz Prediction: UFC 265 Odds

Payton Matthews | Updated Aug 04, 2021

It’s an all-Brazilian matchup in the co-main event of UFC 265 on Saturday night from Houston as Jose Aldo and Pedro Munhoz meet in a non-title bantamweight fight.

The former champion Jose Aldo is a -130 favourite to win on the MMA odds with Munhoz at +100.

Jose Aldo UFC 265 Odds

Aljamain Sterling is the UFC bantamweight champion and the 34-year-old Aldo, who is 29-7, is ranked fifth. Aldo is a former featherweight legend, maybe the best in history, as a three-time division champion. “Junior” began his pro career at 25-1 but then things started going downhill with a shocking loss just 13 seconds into his fight against a then-fairly unknown Conor McGregor at UFC 194.

Aldo moved down to bantamweight around two years ago and lost his debut at 135 pounds to Marlon Moraes by split decision. Aldo then got a shot at the interim bantamweight title – thanks to the retirement of champion Henry Cejudo – against Petr Yan at UFC 251 last July but lost by fifth-round TKO. He bounced back in December with a unanimous decision win over Marlin Vera.

Aldo’s seven losses have come to six fighters (Max Holloway twice) with a combined MMA record of 121-32-2. A total of 59 per cent of Aldo’s wins are by KO/TKO, 38 per cent by decision and he has just one submission victory in his career, coming way back in 2005. Four of his seven losses are by KO/TKO.

Fights by the 5-foot-7 Aldo, who has a reach of 70 inches, average 13:43. He lands 3.45 significant strikes per minute with 45 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.52 per minute. His takedown average is 0.57 per 15 minutes with 56 per cent accuracy and his takedown defence is 91 per cent.

Aldo throws a ton of power punches but tends to wear himself out by doing so.

Pedro Munhoz UFC 265 Odds

The 34-year-old Munhoz, ranked ninth in the division with a 19-5 record, was born two days before Aldo was, but they don’t know one another. Munhoz is the former bantamweight champion of Resurrection Fighting Alliance.

“The Young Punisher” started his pro career 10-0 before losing his UFC debut to Raphael Assuncao at UFC 170. Munhoz has yet to fight for a UFC title but did lose to Sterling by unanimous decision at UFC 238 and followed that with a split-decision defeat last August vs. Frankie Edgar. Munhoz bounced back with a unanimous decision victory over Jimmie Rivera in February to avenge a 2015 defeat vs. Rivera.

The five fighters to have beaten Munhoz have a combined record of 115-37-1. All five of Munhoz’s losses have come by decision, three of them split decisions. Eight of his wins are by submission (six guillotine chokes), six by decision and five by KO/TKO. Also, eight of his total wins have come in Round 1.

Fights by the 5-foot-6 Munhoz, who has a reach of 65 inches, last an average of 10:16. He lands 5.60 significant strikes per minute with 43 per cent accuracy and absorbs 5.87 per minute. Munhoz’s 863 significant strikes landed as a UFC bantamweight are second on the organization’s all-time list in that division. His takedown average is 0.68 per 15 minutes with 21 per cent accuracy and his takedown defence is 80 per cent.

This should be a very aggressive fight. If it were scheduled for five rounds, I’d doubt it goes that far, but it’s set for three – the over 2.5 rounds is a -215 favourite.

UFC 265 Prediction: Aldo vs. Munhoz

Munoz by decision at +200.