Israel Adesanya vs. Paulo Costa Prediction, UFC 253 Card Odds

In one of the most anticipated fights of the year, one fighter’s perfect record will end during the UFC’s return to Fight Island on Saturday for UFC 253.  The main event features a middleweight title bout between undisputed champion Israel Adesanya and challenger Paulo Costa, both undefeated in their careers. Adesanya is a -165 favourite on the MMA odds with Costa at +125.

Israel Adesanya UFC 253 Odds

The 31-year-old Nigerian, Adesanya, has never lost in 19 career fights, including an 8-0 UFC record.  He won the interim middleweight title with a unanimous decision win over Kelvin Gastelum at UFC 236 in April 2019 before unifying the title with a second-round KO win over Robert Whittaker at UFC 243 in October 2019.  Saturday will be his second title defense as he is coming off a unanimous decision win over Yoel Romero at UFC 248 in March.

Adesanya is a tactician, who will likely wait out Costa and try to land increasingly aggressive counterstrikes as the fight wears on.  Size will be key to utilize this strategy as Adesanya has an enormous eight-inch reach advantage to keep Costa at bay, as well as a five-inch leg reach advantage.  Adesanya’s average of 3.96 significant strikes landed per minute might not seem overwhelming, but he makes them count by making smart decisions with his brain over relying on brute force.  Look for Adesanya to be patient and increase his strikes by the third round as Costa has never fought a five-round fight and only one of his past fights has gone the distance.

Paulo Costa UFC 253 Odds

It is not often an undefeated fighter is the underdog in a fight, so that goes to show how tough the 29-year-old Brazilian Costa’s opponent is.  In 13 career fights and wins Costa has only needed to go the distance once.  He has a 5-0 UFC record, including four KO’s by punches, but has struggled with various injuries, including torn biceps, and hasn’t fought since a unanimous decision win over Yoel Romero at UFC 241 in August 2019.

Costa fights a high stakes style with aggressive striking and will likely try to pressure Adesanya early.  The longer this fight goes, the more dangerous it is for Costa as he has arguably never fought a fighter near Adesanya’s caliber.  Costa is a more powerful striker, so if he can find a way to break through Adesanya’s reach advantage, his brute strength could easily bring a KO.  Costa’s 8.83 significant strikes landed per minute more than double’s Adesanya’s mark.  If Costa wins this fight, it will be an early round KO.

Adesanya vs. Costa UFC 253 Prediction

Adesanya has an eight-inch reach advantage, is more skilled overall and will likely take advantage of Costa’s long layoff and the fact his longest career fight went just three rounds.  Watch Adesanya keep Costa at bay in the first two rounds before Adesanya’s precision striking and footwork help him pick up a late round KO over Costa.