Gilbert Burns vs. Neil Magny: UFC 283 Odds, Prediction

Edgar Chaput
January 19, 2023

Two Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioners will be going head-to-head under the bright lights of the Jeunesse Arena. Burns is looking to get back to his winning ways whilst Magny hopes to string two consecutive wins.

The odds setters have placed Gilbert Burns at solid -500, compared to Neil Magny at +335 on the MMA odds.

Gilbert Burns -500
Neil Magny +385

Gilbert Burns UFC 283 Odds

The Brazilian (from Niterói), has had a long time to recover and think about what went astray in his bout against Khamzat Chimaev in April 2022 at UFC 273. Make no mistake about it, it was a fast-paced, especially violent tilt, with both contestants swinging fists and legs with gusto and moxie. Each brawler landed and received several nasty shots to the head and various limbs. Blood trickles down their faces were plain to see as the fight shifted from one round to the next. Ultimately, the three-round dance impressed the judges enough to award Chimaev with a favourable unanimous decision.

“Durinho” still sports a solid 20-5 record, good for a fifth-place ranking in the welterweight class. Representing Sanford MMA out of Lantana, Florida, the 36-year-old hasn’t tasted victory since July 2021 when he bested Stephen Thompson via unanimous decision at UFC 264. That result doesn’t necessarily represent Burns’ preferred path to success. 30 per cent of his wins come via KO/TKO, 40 per cent are by submission, with the remaining 30 per cent earned through decision. An evenly diverse portfolio, if you will.

Many of his figures in the major statistical categories resemble that of his opponent for this fight. He can, however, absorb more significant strikes per minute (3.21 to Magny’s 2.27), and it clearly hasn’t prevented him from winning most of his bouts. Of note, neither his arm nor leg reach is as considerable as Magny’s.

Neil Magny UFC 283 Odds

The 35-year-old American, popularly known as the Haitian Sensation, has had a couple of months to rest on the laurels of his win over Daniel Rodriguez on Nov. 5, 2022, at UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs Lemos (not the same Rodriguez, obviously). The three-round battle saw him land far more strikes than his opposite number (106 to 71), not to mention an impressive 71 per cent takedown efficiency. Five of his seven attempts sent Rodriguez onto the mat. The win by submission erased memories of his previous defeat at UFC at ESPN 38.

A brown belt in jiu-jitsu, Magny earns the majority of his success via decision, with 59 per cent of his victories achieved that way. Only 15 per cent of his wins are the result of a submission, making the conquering of Rodriguez an outlier. He only lands a fraction of a few more significant hits per minute than Gilbert (3.62 to his rival’s 3.46). As alluded to already, he’s much better at avoiding them though. It will be intriguing to see how he executes his superior grappling techniques (42 per cent accuracy to Gilbert’s 34) given that Gilbert is the heavier man, weighing a full 16 lbs more. This is where Magny’s height and reach advantages may come into play.