Gilbert Burns vs Jorge Masvidal: UFC 287 Odds, Prediction

Edgar Chaput
April 6, 2023

Jorge Masvidal will feel right at home as a native Floridian with the event taking place at Miami’s Kaseya Center. He’ll also be hoping to get back on the horse after losing his last fight. It won’t be easy, as Brazilian Gilbert Burns should prove to be stiff competition.

The MMA odds have the Brazilian as a hefty -445 favourite, whereas Masvidal lags behind at +305.

Gilbert Burns -345
Jorge Masvidal +245

Gilbert Burns UFC 287

The 36-year-old from Rio de Janeiro brings his stellar 21-5 win-loss record into the ring with some wind in his sails. Nicknamed “Durinho,” his UFC career has been strong despite a recent bump in the road. The Jiu-Jitsu practitioner faced off against Stephen Thompson back at UFC 264 in July of 2021 and emerged the victor through a favourable decision by the judges. There was a long stretch before his next tilt, which only came in April of last year at UFC 273 when he fell to Khamzat Chimaev, also via decision.

Most recently, in January of this year, he squared off against Neil Magney. The bout didn’t last nearly as long as some would have hoped. After staring each other in the eye for a few moments and exchanging some light jabs, Burns made his move on Magny, pinning him awkwardly to the mat in an arm-triangle choke. Tried as he might, Magny could not withstand the force of the submission and tapped out before the first round’s clock expired. “Durinho” walked away from the fight looking as if he had hardly broken a sweat.

The result lines up with the 43 per cent of victories arrived at through submissions. The rest are evenly split between KO/TKO and decisions (29 per cent each). He’s a grappler, attempting 2.03 takedowns every 15 minutes, with an efficiency of 35 per cent. One reckons grappling will be an essential method given his limited reach (71 inches to Masvidal’s 74). He isn’t amazing with respect to significant strikes but nor are his numbers poor, with 3.42 every 60 seconds. He absorbs a decent amount, however, at 3.17.

Jorge Masvidal UFC 287

The 38-year-old American will be looking to put the painful memory of his bout with Colby Covington behind him on Saturday night. The one they call “Gamebred” is on the slide these days and could use a big win to boost his prospects.

At UFC 261 in April 2021 he crossed paths with Kamaru Usman but was defeated via knockout in the sophomore round. He was then supposed to share the ring with Leon Edwards in December of that same year for UFC 269, but injuries prevented him from participating. Three months later, in March’s UFC 272, Colby Covington put on a mesmerizing display of grappling and wrestling prowess. In each of the five rounds, Covington founds ways to frustrate Masvidal with pins against the fence or mat. Sometimes they would be crunched together for minutes at a time. While the crowd eventually grew somewhat restless, it was a sound strategy for victory. With each successive round Masvidal looked more tired. By the final minute of the ultimate session, he was on the floor, receiving an alarming number of significant hits to the head.

Most of his victories are earned via decision (49 per cent) with KO/TKO coming in second at a lofty 46 per cent. He’s definitely more comfortable hitting than grappling, as he lans 4.11 strikes per minute and only 1.44 takedowns every 15 minutes. He eats a tiny bit fewer hits every 60 seconds than Burns (3.06 to 3.11) but the numbers are comparable.