Curtis Blaydes vs. Tom Aspinall: UFC Fight Night 208 Odds, Prediction

With a win on Saturday, Curtis Blaydes, the No. 6 ranked heavyweight contender, could earn a title shot against current heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou.  This will be the toughest test yet for No. 6 contender Tom Aspinall, who has dominated with stoppage victories in all five of his career UFC fights.

Aspinall is a -145 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Blaydes is a +110 underdog.

Curtis Blaydes UFC Fight Night 208 Odds

The 31-year-old Blaydes has put together a 16-3 record in his professional MMA career, with one no contest.  He’s gone 12-3 since his UFC debut in 2016, with two of those losses coming against current heavyweight champion Ngannou and one coming against Derrick Lewis.

“Razor” comes into Saturday with wins in his last two fights.  He defeated Jairzinho Rozenstruik via unanimous decision at UFC 266 in September 2021 and he scored a second-round TKO victory against Chris Daukaus last March.  The Daukaus win also earned Blaydes a Performance of the Night bonus.  Other notable opponents he has defeated include Alexander Volkov, Junior dos Santos and Alistair Overeem.

Blaydes has 11 career victories via KO/TKO and five via decision.  He averages 3.52 significant strikes landed per minute and 6.06 takedowns per 15 minutes.  A standout wrestler, Blaydes doesn’t rely on one-shot knockout power.  He prefers to hammer his opponents and wear them down.

Even with a two-inch reach advantage, Blaydes’ best strategy is to get this fight to the ground early.  He’s the heavier fighter and Aspinall will likely struggle to budge the American.  Keep in mind, Aspinall has only fought out of the first round three times in his career and he’s never fought past the second.  Blaydes needs to expose Aspinall’s untested cardio and make the Brit uncomfortable.

Tom Aspinall UFC Fight Night 208 Odds

Aspinall, the 29-year-old Manchester native, is 12-2 in his professional MMA career, with his last loss coming just over six years ago.  This will be his second straight headlining event in London following a first-round submission victory against Volkov last March.

Aspinall has been absolutely dominant with a perfect 5-0 record in the UFC since his debut in July 2020.  All five fights were stoppage victories, four of which came in the first round.  Andrei Arlovski is the only UFC fighter to survive the first round against Aspinall.  The Brit has earned four total and three straight Performance of the Night bonuses.  He has nine career wins by KO/TKO and three by submission.

Aspinall is a volume striker, averaging 7.33 significant strikes per minute.  His grappling is also up to par as he averages 4.07 takedowns per 15 minutes.  Aspinall has pivoted between boxing and grappling throughout his career, leading to a versatility that is rarer in the heavyweight division.

As mentioned, Aspinall has never fought past the second round, so his conditioning is untested.  Still, he’s proven to be a well-rounded fighter in the limited action we’ve seen of him.  While Aspinall could certainly compete with Blaydes on the ground, his best strategy in this particular fight is likely to keep things standing up.  Aspinall is the better striker and Blaydes often leaves himself exposed in a standup fight.

UFC Fight Night 208 Prediction: Curtis Blaydes vs. Tom Aspinall

This is a big opportunity for both fighters.  The winner should be able to book a high profile fight near the end of the year, while the loser will take a step back.  Blaydes has been a force in his UFC career and still poses a significant challenge, but this feels like a career-defining fight for Aspinall.  The Brit will make his mark and once again end things early.  Aspinall wins via first-round KO/TKO.