Chris Weidman vs Brad Tavares: UFC 292 Odds, Prediction
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Edgar Chaput
Prelims don’t get much hype, but this Middleweight bout is special insofar as one of its contestants, Chris Weidman, is a former UFC Middleweight champion. He won the title in 2013. His opponent this week is Hawaiian Brad Tavares, who will surely be entering the octagon with a heavy heart given the tragic events in his home state last week.
The UFC odds have placed Brad Tavares as a -270 favourite to Chris Weidman’s +200.
Chris Weidman UFC 292 Odds
It has been a long and testy road to reach UFC 292 for the former Middleweight champion. The 39-year-old from Baldwin, New York has not stepped into the octagon for a professional fight at this level since April 2021.
In fact, 2021 was arguably the worst kind of year an MMA fighter could have. It all started when a tilt against Uriah Hall originally scheduled for February was cancelled because Weidman contracted Covid. Tough break. The bout was transferred to April at UFC 261 but ended catastrophically. A dire fibula and tibia injury left Weidman on the mat, done and dusted, awarding a TKO victory by default to Uriah Hall. That was the last time Weidman fought. He required surgery twice to fully recover. At one point he hoped to fight someone by the end of 2022, but that never happened either.
As for ability and stats, he has a slightly better reach than Tavares (78 inches to 74) although the leg reach is a bit shorter (42 to 43). His method of victory varies, with 40 per cent courtesy of KO and TKO, 27 per cent thanks to submissions, and the remaining third via judges’ decisions. He dispatches opponents more quickly than Tavares, with an average fight time of 9:40 to his rival’s 12:48. His significant strikes per 60 seconds is average at 3.03. He also eats 3.13 every minute with 52 per cent defence. Takedowns are a big thing, with 3.92 every 15 minutes and his defence against them is a solid 62 per cent.
Brad Tavares UFC 292 Odds
Brad Tavares’ story isn’t as bewildering as Weidman’s, but emotions will be running high given the forest fires that devastated large portions of Hawaii last week. In their own ways, both fighters are sentimental favourites, but only one can win. A unique situation for this prelim bout.
The 35-year-old from Kailua doesn’t sport a good recent track record either. In July of last year, he came face to face with Dircus du Plessis at UFC 276, with a unanimous decision going against him. A fight between him and Gregory Rodrigues was expected for January’s UFC 283, but Tavares withdrew because of a nagging injury. He was back in action in April at UFC Fight Night 222, but Bruno Silva got the better of him via TKO.
We’ve spoken about their reach advantages and disadvantages, and while the figures are similar, what isn’t is how Tavares earns his wins. An incredible 63 per cent are claimed via judges’ decisions. Only 11 per cent are through submissions, with the other 27 per cent thanks to classic KO or TKO. Back to stats that resemble those of this week’s opponent, Tavares delivers 3.32 significant hits a minute and suffers 3.06. Even their defences against them look alike at 56 per cent for the Hawaiian and 52 for his rival. He does not grapple much, however, only attempting 0.85 every 15 minutes. His 80 per cent against takedowns is terrific.