Calvin Kattar vs. Josh Emmett: UFC Fight Night Odds, Prediction
A pair of American Top-10 featherweights highlight the main event of Saturday’s UFC Fight Night card from Austin, Texas, as No. 4 contender Calvin Kattar takes on No. 7 Josh Emmett. The featherweight division is incredibly competitive and both fighters need a win to take a step closer to a title shot.
Kattar is the early -270 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Emmett is a +195 underdog.
Calvin Kattar UFC Fight Night Odds
Kattar (23-5 MMA record) took a full year off following his unanimous decision loss to Max Holloway in January 2021. He returned to the Octagon this past January and picked up a dominating unanimous decision victory over Giga Chikadze. The 34-year was actually an underdog in the Chikadze fight, but he managed to win all five rounds, earning a Fight of the Night bonus.
“The Boston Finisher” debuted in the UFC in 2017 and has built a respectable 7-3 record in that time. Like his nickname suggests, Kattar likes to keep things standing up and attack with his technical boxing ability and punishing elbows, leading to 11 career wins by knockout and 10 by decision. He also has a background as a star high school wrestler, although he has only won by submissions twice in his career and never in the UFC.
As mentioned, Kattar likes to fight standing up and that won’t change in this fight. He averages 5.19 significant strikes landed per minute with 41 per cent accuracy. That slightly outdoes Emmett, who averages 4.28 strikes with 39 per cent accuracy. The main concern for Kattar is the punishment he takes. Kattar absorbs an average of 7.64 significant strikes per minute with 52 per cent defence. Emmett takes much less abuse, absorbing 4.1 strikes with 62 per cent defence.
Clearly, Kattar needs to be smarter defensively in this fight. He’s going up against another boxer, so limiting punishment will likely make the difference. Breaking up Emmett’s combinations with well-timed jabs goes a long way to limiting the wear-and-tear Kattar will endure. Kattar also has an impressive gas tank. His last three fights went the distance and he doesn’t slow down in the later rounds. Emmett has never fought more than three rounds. If Kattar can minimize damage early, he should have a good shot at a late knockout, or a win on points.
Josh Emmett UFC Fight Night Odds
Emmett (17-2 MMA record) has been on a roll with wins in his last four fights. He beat Michael Johnson by KO (punches) and Mirsad Bektic by TKO (punches). The 37-year-old then took out Shane Burgos and Dan Ige each by unanimous decision. This will be his second main event and a win would go a long way to closing the gap on a title shot.
Emmett didn’t make his UFC debut until he was 31-years-old, but he’s built an impressive 8-2 record in the Octagon in that time. Like his opponent, Emmett has a strong wrestling background, but prefers to fight standing up. In his career, he’s won nine times by decision, six by knockout and twice by submission. Keep in mind, however, those two submission wins didn’t come in the UFC.
Emmett’s punching ability and strong right hand have helped him pick up 11 knockdowns in his last seven fights, but he generally has predictable combinations and doesn’t always unleash his full power. Again, he prefers to fight standing up, but one way he could throw off Kattar’s game plan is by actually taking this fight to the ground.
If Emmett does make an an unexpected move and take this fight to the ground, he could give himself a big advantage as he is a much better grappler than Kattar. He averages 1.25 takedowns per 15 minutes with 47 per cent accuracy. That compares to 0.51 takedowns with just 29 per cent accuracy for Kattar. It’s not the way he prefers to do things, but Emmett has a two-inch reach disadvantage against a more technical striker, so bringing things to the ground might be his best chance to win.
UFC Fight Night Prediction: Kattar vs. Emmett
The top four featherweight fighters are all scheduled to fight next month, so there’s going to be a lot of movement in the division, making a win essential for both Kattar and Emmett. While Emmett has been impressive on his four-fight win streak, none of those opponents have been as dangerous as Kattar, who has never been finished by strikes in his MMA career and never even knocked down. Kattar wins by unanimous decision.