Alvarez vs Poirier 2: UFC Fight Night Odds and Predictions

Payton Matthews | Updated Jul 25, 2018

alvarez vs poirier 2

The UFC makes its second all-time visit to Calgary’s Scotiabank Saddledome on Saturday night for UFC on Fox 30, which is headlined by a non-title lightweight fight between contenders Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier.

The four-fight main card is expected to begin at 8 p.m. ET. Here’s a look at those bouts and their Sports Interaction odds.

Eddie Alvarez vs. Dustin Poirier

Records: Alvarez (29-5), Poirier (23-5)

Division: Lightweight

UFC Odds: Poirier -160, Alvarez +125

Prediction: Alvarez by KO/TKO

As the headliner, this matchup of Americans is the only scheduled five-round fight on the card even though it’s not a title bout. The current lightweight champion is unbeaten Khabib Nurmagomedov with Tony Ferguson No. 1 and Conor McGregor No. 2 – then we come to Alvarez at No. 3 and Poirier at No. 4. Alvarez is a former lightweight champion who lost his title to McGregor in a TKO defeat in November 2016. Alvarez’s next fight was against Poirier in May 2017 and it was ruled a no-contest after Alvarez landed a pair of accidental illegal knees.

Alvarez has fought once since then, beating Justin Gaethje by third-round knockout (knees) last December. Alvarez’s UFC contract is up after this, but that doesn’t mean he’s done with the organization. A win would give him additional bargaining power. Incidentally, Poirier also last fought Gaethje, beating him by fourth-round TKO (punches) in April.

Jeremy Stephens vs. Jose Aldo

Records: Stephens (28-14), Aldo (26-4)

Division: Featherweight

UFC Odds: Aldo -130, Stephens +100

Prediction: Aldo by decision

The featherweight champion is Max Holloway, although it’s not clear if he will fight at that weight much longer. Brian Ortega is ranked No. 1 with Aldo at No. 2 and Stephens at No. 4.  The Brazilian Aldo was considered one of the greatest featherweights in MMA history but has lost three of his past four: one to McGregor and the past two by third-round TKO (punches) to Holloway. Aldo has made some noise about transitioning to a boxing career.

Stephens, an American, also has a loss to Holloway on his resume but rides a three-fight winning streak into this one. Stephens is one of the most powerful guys in the division with 19 victories by KO or TKO.

Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Tecia Torres

Records: Jedrzejczyk (14-2), Torres (10-2)

Division: Women’s strawweight

UFC Odds: Jedrzejczyk -325, Torres +250

Prediction: Jedrzejczyk by decision

Jedrzejczyk, from Poland, started her MMA career with 14 straight wins and was the UFC champion of this division. However, she has lost back-to-back fights (one by TKO, one by unanimous decision) to current champion Rose Namajunas. Some thought Jedrzejczyk won the most recent bout. She’s still the No. 1 ranked contender and might get a third shot at Namajunas with a win.

Torres, an American, is ranked No. 5 in the division. She lost to Namajunas by decision in April 2016, won three straight and then was beaten in February by decision against Jessica Andrade.

Alexander Hernandez vs. Olivier Aubin-Mercier

Records: Hernandez (9-1), Aubin-Mercier (12-2)

Division: Lightweight

UFC Odds: Aubin-Mercier -155, Hernandez +125

Prediction: Hernandez by KO/TKO

No way that the UFC was going to stage a card in Calgary and not include a Canadian among the main fights. Aubin-Mercier is from Boucherville and nicknamed “the Quebec Kid.” He’s not yet ranked in the lightweight division but likely would be with a victory over No. 13 Hernandez. Aubin-Mercier has won four in a row since a loss to Carlos Diego Ferreira, last beating Evan Dunham by first-round TKO in April. That was his first career win by KO or TKO. Hernandez, from the USA, enters on a seven-fight winning streak. He made his UFC debut in March by knocking out Beneil Dariush just 42 seconds in.

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