Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: Odds, Prediction
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Kevin Thompkins
Friday is the first game of a three-game weekend series, which pits the Minnesota Twins (36-40) against the Arizona Diamondbacks (38-36). This is a matchup of teams in the thick of their respective league’s Wild Card hunts. The Twins still have AL Central hopes, and with a strong end of June and a strong run through the rest of the season, they can certainly go on a run and get to the top of a winnable division with no standouts.
As for the Diamondbacks, they’re just a half-game back of the San Diego Padres for second place in the NL West, but a whopping 9.5 games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers. They’re straddling the .500 line, but in the tightly-packed National League Wild Card race, they’ll have to put some distance between themselves and more than a half-dozen teams between now and September.
Even towards the end of June, every game is important in multiple division and Wild Card races across both leagues, so let’s predict a winner and break down Friday’s game.
Arizona is a -175 favourite to win on the MLB odds, with the total set at 8.5.
MLB Betting Odds and Trends
The game total has gone over for the Twins in eight of their last 10 games, and for the Diamondbacks, the total has gone under in seven of their last eight games. We won’t be attacking that angle. Both offences are below average, but the pitching hasn’t been great on either side either. We’ll look more toward the individual matchups and the home split for Arizona, who are 23-15 at home; one of the best records in baseball.
Minnesota Twins
The Twins are league-average on offence and have been heavily powered by Byron Buxton. He has 2.8 WAR (wins above replacement) and paces Minnesota with 23 home runs, 71 hits, and a .919 OPS. He’s been relatively healthy, playing in 64-of-75 games this season, and that’s all you ask for from a player who has had injury troubles his entire career.
Despite the Twins winning five of their last six games and four straight, including a sweep of the Texas Rangers, the Twins’ pitching has been pretty bad lately. Sporting a 6.11 ERA over the last week, Minnesota’s pitching has been a work in progress overall. Joe Ryan (2.99 ERA, 2.1 WAR, 99:18 K:BB ratio) has been by far the Twins’ best starter this season, but after Taj Bradley, who has been OK, the young pitching for Minnesota has struggled big time. The trade deadline could fetch big- time prospects for Buxton or Ryan, but these next couple of weeks will decide the Twins’ fate in 2026.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks have been a bit of the inverse of the Twins this season: Arizona has a bit better pitching, but its offence as a whole has been anemic. The DBacks have a bottom-five OPS (.691), the sixth-fewest home runs (66) and are bottom-12 in runs scored on the campaign. If Arizona didn’t have Corbin Carroll (.904 OPS, 13 HR, 38 RBI) and Ketel Marte (.752 OPS, 11 HR, 43 RBI), it could have been a very bad team competing with the Colorado Rockies for the worst team in at least the NL West.
Like their hitting, Arizona’s rotation has been carried by Eduardo Rodriguez and Michael Soroka for quality innings. Both sport ERAs under 3.11 and are hoping for turnarounds from ace Zac Gallen (5.35 ERA) to help balance out a rotation that’s needed some help.
MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Twins vs. Diamondbacks?
For Friday’s game, the visiting Twins will trot out left-handed starter Connor Prielipp. His first 10 starts of the season have resulted in a gaudy 5.26 ERA and a 2-4 record. He’s learning on the job with this Twins team, and he’ll get a long leash to learn how to pitch in the majors. Opposing Prielipp is Michael Soroka, whose story has been awesome. After overcoming injuries and bouncing around between teams, Soroka brings an 8-3 record and a 3.11 ERA into this game.
With the Diamondbacks at home, I’ll take Arizona and the better pitcher against the inexperienced Prielipp and the visiting Twins.
Best Bet: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+123)
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