Toronto Blue Jays Magic Numbers: What it will take to clinch playoffs, AL East, first-round bye?
Riding a six-game winning streak, the Toronto Blue Jays are in the driver’s seat in the standings.
Toronto holds a five-game lead over the Yankees in the AL East and a four-game lead over the Tigers for the American League.
So, what’s the magic number for the Jays to clinch a playoff spot, the division and a first-round bye? Let’s find out.
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Playoff berth magic number: 3
When it comes to simply clinching an American League playoff spot, you have to look at the non-playoff team closest to the final wild-card spot, which is Cleveland at 2.5 games back.
Any combination of three Toronto wins or three Guardians losses is all it will take for the Blue Jays to secure playoff baseball.
AL East title magic number: 6
Toronto hasn’t won the division since 2015, but they are in full control of their fate when it comes to winning the AL East this year.
The magic number to clinch the division is down to six games. That takes into account the Blue Jays’ having the tiebreaker over the Yankees because they won the season series 8-5.
Toronto is currently projected at a 98.3 per cent chance to win the AL East, while the Yankees have a 1.6 per cent chance.
Again, the Blue Jays will win the division if they win and the Yankees lose six total combined games.
First-round bye magic number: 5*
If AL East is also clinched
Trailing the Tigers by two games, Seattle currently decides Toronto’s magic number to clinch a first-round bye and head straight to the ALDS.
The Jays hold a 4-2 edge in the season series over the Mariners, with their magic number to clinch the bye sitting at five.
However, Toronto still needs to clinch the division before they can clinch a bye, meaning the AL East race is more important as it will dictate whether they get a first-round bye.
You also have to watch out for the Astros, who are just a half-game behind Seattle in the AL West. Houston holds the tiebreaker over the Blue Jays, so the Toronto will be hoping the Mariners can hold off the Astros in the AL West race.
