Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: Odds, Prediction
The 24-12 Tampa Bay Red Sox head north to start a four-game weekend series against the 16-21 Boston Red Sox on Thursday, and both teams are heating up as we enter May. The visiting Rays have rattled off six straight wins, sweeping back-to-back series against the San Francisco Giants and Toronto Blue Jays. On the flip side, the Red Sox have won three consecutive games this week, sweeping the Detroit Tigers and outscoring them 19-7.
It’s still early in the season, but there will always be major implications anytime division rivals battle, so let’s get into my Rays vs. Red Sox picks.
Betting Analysis
Tampa Bay is a small underdog for the series opener, carrying a -105 moneyline price compared to the Red Sox -115 moneyline odds. If you think Boston can stay hot, you can bet them on the runline (-1.5) at +170; Tampa Bay +1.5 has -225 odds. The run total (Over/Under) is 8.0, with both sides carrying a -110 price.
The Red Sox are just 6-10 at home this season, and a major reason is that they haven’t scored at Fenway Park. The Under is 11-4-1 in Sox home games, but that could change because Tampa Bay has cashed the Over in 11 of their 18 road contests.
Tampa Bay Rays
Griffin Jax (RHP) will take the mound for Tampa Bay Thursday, so it is clearly a bullpen game for the visitors. Jax has made 13 appearances this season, recording 14.0 innings pitched with a 5.14 ERA, and has not gone more than 2.2 innings in a single appearance. The Rays are 8-5 when Jax has made an appearance this season, but he’s gone just 1-2.
The Rays are once again competing in the AL East when they have no business doing so. DH Yandy Diaz leads the team with a .318 batting average, but they’ve been getting contributions from LF Chandler Simpson (43 hits), 3B Junior Caminero (9 HRs), 1B Jonathan Aranda (29 RBIs), and more. Tampa’s biggest strength is the depth of their lineup, and they’ll be licking their lips going up against Boston’s LHP Jake Bennett, as the Rays are 8-1 against left-handers this season.
Boston Red Sox
25-year-old Bennett made his season debut last week against the Houston Astros, and the rookie pitched 5.0 innings, giving up just five hits and one earned run. It was a fantastic debut for the Oklahoma Sooners product, but his hands will be full against this Rays lineup. Tampa ranks in the top half of the MLB against left-handed pitchers in runs, batting average, and on-base percentage.
The Red Sox fired manager Alex Cora back on April 25, and although they were 2-2 under interim manager Chad Tracy, they’re now 6-4 and have their longest win streak since last September. Willson Contreras stated that the clubhouse became “loose” after the Sox fired Cora, and clearly, a relaxed clubhouse has led to positive results. Although they’re playing well, I’m not sure they can keep things going against this Tampa squad.
MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Rays vs. Red Sox?
Both teams are playing great baseball, but I love the price we’re getting here on the Rays moneyline (-105). Bennett impressed in his debut for Boston, but he’s still only pitched 5.0 innings in the MLB and will now face a Tampa lineup that is seeing the ball well against lefties. Additionally, these teams are a combined 15-4-1 for Under 8.0 runs in their last 10 games, and the Rays have cashed it in all 10. I’ll take Tampa to win in a low-scoring affair.
Best Bet: Rays ML (-105)
