Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: Odds, Prediction
The Jays are priced as -125 favourites on the MLB odds and a total of eight runs.
Betting Analysis
Without question, the Tampa Bay Rays are the best-run small-market team in the major leagues. Despite annually having one of the lowest payrolls and worst attendance marks in MLB, the Rays had reached the playoffs five straight years before missing out in 2024 at 80-82, the club’s first losing record since 2017.
While we don’t think Tampa Bay will win the AL East this season, and it is +1100 to accomplish that, it should compete for an AL Wild-Card spot again. Oddsmakers don’t much agree yet with Tampa Bay at +300 to return to the postseason and no at -400.
It will depend on if the team gets enough hitting as the pitching looks to be good enough – especially if ace Shane McClanahan gets back after missing all of 2024. The original plan was for him to be ready for Opening Day, but the southpaw had a setback in the spring with a triceps injury. McClanahan resumed simulated throwing in late April and continues to ramp up slowly.
Toronto went 4-8 vs. Tampa Bay in 2024, including 2-4 at home, and hasn’t won a season series vs. the Rays since 2017.
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays finished a six-game homestand – they are playing at the New York Yankees’ spring complex this year while their awful usual St. Petersburg home of Tropicana Field, the worst stadium in American sports, is being repaired from hurricane damage – at 2-4 following Sunday’s 4-2 loss to Milwaukee. The long-term future of the franchise in the greater Tampa Bay area is very much up in the air overall. Tampa Bay is far from healthy yet. We mentioned pitcher Shane McClanahan above with shortstop Ha-Seong Kim and outfielders Johnny DeLuca, Josh Lowe and Jake Mangum on the injured list. The Rays are hitting a collective .241 on the year with only 32 homers. Just three teams have fewer.
Former touted prospect Shane Baz (3-2, 4.93 ERA) is scheduled on the mound Tuesday. The 25-year-old has had injury problems in his career that have set him back some. Baz has had a few dominant starts in 2025 but has been ripped in the past two, allowing 13 runs and 17 hits over nine innings, both losses. He has made just one road start and threw seven shutout innings in San Diego. Baz is 2-0 with a 2.12 ERA in three career starts vs. the Jays. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 4-for-8 off him career. The under is 4-1 in the Rays’ past five games.
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto concluded a six-game West Coast trip on Sunday at 4-2 with a fourth straight win, 9-1 in Seattle to sweep the AL West-leading Mariners to get back to .500 on the year. The M’s had won nine series in a row. However, No. 1 Jays catcher Alejandro Kirk left in the top of the fifth on Sunday with a possible concussion after Kirk suffered a blow to the helmet on a backswing from Julio Rodriguez in bottom of the third inning. Kirk was to be further evaluated Monday.
Veteran righty Jose Berrios (1-1, 3.86 ERA) is scheduled on the mound Tuesday, but he has really struggled at home with a 1-4 mark and 5.01 ERA in four outings. But Berrios hasn’t allowed more than three earned in any of his past four starts overall to bring that season ERA down from 5.16. Berrios has started vs. the Rays 13 times career and is 4-6 with a 4.52 ERA. Yandy Diaz has had success against him, going 6-for-17 with two doubles and a homer. Jonathan Aranda is 4-for-8 with two homers vs. Berrios. The over is 8-0 in Toronto’s past eight games.
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