MLB Power Rankings, World Series Odds: Baltimore Orioles Fly to the Top
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Edgar Chaput
In our first Power Rankings exercise after the All-Star Break, we already have witnessed some baseball that suggests which direction certain teams may be heading in the season’s second half. As such, some key clubs have risen in the ranks whereas others have taken a slight dip.
This is it, folks. It’s the period of the year when the games become as important as they’re going to get considering the boys of summer play an incredible 162 of them.
All data taken as of Tuesday, July 18 prior to game start times.
1. Baltimore Orioles (57-36, runline: 56-37)
The Baltimore Orioles take back the top spot, usurping the Texas Rangers. This has been an incredibly close race for weeks, and the margins between the sides are slight. Baltimore has one more win in the standings and two fewer failures ATS. Felix Bautista has an incredible 25 of the bullpen’s 30 saves.
2. Texas Rangers (56-39, runline: 56-39)
Texas hasn’t fallen per se. More of a little trip up from first to second place. At the time of writing, they swept the Guardians and have taken the first of three games against the Rays, so things are still going very well in Arlington. It isn’t their fault they’ve played two more games than Baltimore, but it is what it is. Adolis Garcia leads the majors in runs batted in with 80 and counting.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers (54-39, runline: 52-41)
Even though the Dodgers shockingly lost a game to the Mets on Sunday, it wasn’t enough to halt their rise. They were 10th a fortnight ago and now place third. The most salient point is that they are the team with the fourth-best win-loss record that has also covered 52 spreads, so placing them lower would make no sense. Mookie Betts leads the team with 27 home runs and the club is second in MLB in that category.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks (52-42, runline: 52-42)
It’s difficult to know what to make of this position. It’s a drop from second to fourth, and the tumble is warranted given how they’ve played since we last analyzed them. But they were so awful against the Blue Jays this past weekend they looked a lot worse than the fourth-best team in the majors. We shall see what comes of this. They rank fourth in stolen bases, and Corbin Carroll has 26 already.
5- Tampa Bay Rays (60-37, runline: 51-46)
If a few weeks ago Tampa Bay Rays fans were within their right to cry foul because we refused to put a team with the best record in the majors at number one, today their position has weakened. Speaking of weakening positions, Tampa leads the AL East by a single game as of July 18 in the afternoon. They’re also 3-7 in their last 10. Plenty of time to course correct, but the truth is this is a 60-win team surfing rocky waters.
6. Cincinnati Reds (50-44, runline: 59-35)
This placement may be seen as controversial. The Reds haven’t moved much, only going from fourth to sixth. The reality is that they played the Brewers six times in a row (before and after the All-Star break). They went 1-5, relinquished the division lead, and got a harsh dose of reality. Still, that runline record continues to shine. Alexis Diaz is tied for second in MLB with 26 saves.
7. Boston Red Sox (51-44, runline: 51-44)
No one considers the Red Sox a force to be reckoned with, and for all we know between now and the next time we write these rankings they’ll have tumbled down the ladder. But right now, they’re fighting for a Wild Card spot and have covered a lot of spreads. Left fielder Masataka Yoshida is on a tear, having improved his batting average to .316.
8. Atlanta Braves (61-31, runline: 47-45)
Braves fans know the drill by now. Trust us when we say we have nothing personal against Atlanta. It’s just, you know, that runline record. They lead the NL East by a comfortable 10 games and are showing no signs of slowing down. Spencer Strider is in a four-way tie for most wins in MLB with 11 already.
9. San Francisco Giants (52-41, runline: 49-44)
If there is a team that’s spent the season on a merry-go-round, it’s the San Francisco Giants. At one point an unimpressive .500 ball club, they executed a decent climb in late June, only to fall back to .500 and here they are in the top 10 with a win-loss record 11 games above .500. They are maddeningly difficult to predict. Offence isn’t a big part of their game, but they have Logan Webb’s excellent 3.11 ERA to back them up.
10. Houston Astros (52-42, runline: 48-46)
We’ll let the defending champions crack the top 10, if just barely. Unlike some other teams ranked higher than them this week, at least Houston has been mostly consistent. Framber Valdez is once again in the conversation for the AL Cy Young Award, but what else is new? They’ll need more of that magic that helped them defeat the Rangers three out of four games a few weeks ago.
11. New York Yankees (50-45, runline: 50-45)
The Yankees are doing enough to remain relevant. They’ve hit the 50-win mark both in the standings and in covers against the runline and they are, at the time of writing, the last team to do so. We’ll admit that 50-45 isn’t a thrilling tally in either regard, but just good enough. Consider also that they’re a 50-win club in last place in their division!
12. Washington Nationals (38-56, runline: 53-41)
There’s one every season. That team that doesn’t win many games but keeps betters happy. We’re past the midway point of the 2023 campaign. Obviously, the Nationals are that team for this season. To be fair, Lane Thomas is having a decent season, hitting .295.
13. Toronto Blue Jays (53-41, runline: 42-52)
We’re more than happy to let the Jays crack the top half of the rankings. The record against the spread doesn’t impress much, but they’re starting to look like a club one can at least trust on the moneyline. At 12 games over .500 at the time of writing, they’re playing some of their best baseball all year. It would be nice to see Daulton Varsho pick up the slack at bat though.
14. Miami Marlins (53-43, runline: 47-49)
Miami is in a similar situation as Arizona, only with a much worse runline record. Was their bad weekend in Baltimore a bump in the road en route to a memorable season or a sign that everybody got a little too excited about the new kids on the block? One may be tempted to wonder if Luis Arraez is rising the tide for all the ships on the roster. The next few months will reveal the truth.
15. Milwaukee Brewers (52-42, runline 44-50)
This ranking generates conflicting feelings. They sit far lower than the Reds because of an inferior performance ATS, yet just finished beating Cincy five out of six games. Let’s consider this midway point of the Power Rankings a placeholder. Milwaukee is on a good run, so they make the cut for the top half, but are they benefitting from a mediocre division?
16. Philadelphia Phillies (51-42, runline: 39-54)
The last of the 50-win teams opens the bottom half of the rankings. It’s one of those moments in an exercise such as this when one side compels the writer to show respect to a club that’s winning most of its games but is pulled back by the reality that that same team is atrocious against the spread. Big signing Trea Turner isn’t delivering all the goods (.251) but Nick Castellanos is doing a lot of heavy lifting (.290, 56 RBIs).
17. Minnesota Twins (48-47, runline: 46-49)
We’re past the midway point of the rankings. You know what time is it: AL and NL Central teams! What else is there to write about the Twins? They still lead the division, still by a few games, still hovering around .500. It literally never changes. Carlos Correa’s drop off in productivity (.234) isn’t helping matters.
18. Detroit Tigers (42-51, runline: 49-44)
The sneakiest entry at this stage of the article are the Tigers. The record in the standings is bad, but that ATS tally looks nice. Detroit is that team a better can surprise friends with by saying that’s who they made some money off of with a prop because nobody else would think of betting on them. That has to count for something!
19. Chicago Cubs (43-50, runline: 47-46)
It’s bewildering that a team with two starting pitchers sporting ERAs under 3.00 aren’t winning more often. Marcus Stroman (2.88) and Justin Steele (2.96) are having terrific seasons. In fact, they are the MLB team with as bad a win-loss record as theirs with as good a run differential (+33). A truly bizarre season and, for Cubs fans, a frustrating one.
20. Seattle Mariners (47-46, runline: 45-48)
Mariners fans showed Shohei Ohtani a wave of fuzzy feelings at last week’s All-Star Game, chanting that they’d love to have the superstar on their roster. Given how the 2023 campaign has gone so far after the promise of 2022, who can blame them? The Teoscar Hernandez acquisition hasn’t really panned out – .242 batting average, although the 50 RBIs are decent.
21. Los Angeles Angels (47-48, runline: 43-52)
Speaking Shohei, shame on this team for not putting together a better roster to help him out. For him to produce as much as he does with such consistency, it’s criminal that this club can barely sniff a Wild Card spot. Yes, Mike Trout just got injured, but it wasn’t as though he was doing that much anyways (.263 batting average, 44 RBIs).
22. Cleveland Guardians (46-48, runline: 46-48)
If writing about the Minnesota Twins is odd enough, think about the Cleveland Guardians, who perpetually chase Minnesota but never manage to catch up. Josh Naylor is having a great year at the plate, hitting .311 with 75 RBIs to date. Unfortunately, the rest of the group is pretty average, thus the average win-loss record in an average division.
23. San Diego Padres (44-50, runline: 46-48)
It isn’t all bad in San Diego. Well, it’s pretty bad for the Padres but what we mean is that they cover just enough spreads for them to not be entirely overlooked. Fernando Tatis Jr. is putting up a solid year (.284, 49 RBIs) and Blake Snell has been terrific on the mound (2.71) even though he doesn’t get the run support to win more games.
24. Chicago White Sox (40-55, runline: 47-48)
Having Luis Robert Jr. must be fun. How much fun is the player himself having with the White Sox is another matter altogether. Still, a bit like Padres, betters shouldn’t completely count them out of their props.
25. St. Louis Cardinals (41-53, runline: 46-48)
The team has openly admitted that as the August 1 trade deadline approaches the Cardinals will be in a seller’s mood. When a club is clear about something like that, you know it’s been a rough year and big changes loom. Still, offensively it’s a decent group, with Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Brendan Donovan all hitting above .280.
26. Pittsburgh Pirates (41-53, runline: 43-51)
There was a time, a few months ago, when we praised the Pirates for a surprisingly delightful start to the season. Cut to late July and they are the 26th ranked team in our MLB Power Rankings. Nobody is hitting that well and the rotation is as mediocre as it gets except for Mitch Keller, who is 9-5 with a 3.73 ERA.
27. Oakland Athletics (25-71, runline: 45-51)
For betters, the benefit of an awful, awful team is that they’re always expected to get trashed on the diamond, so they end up covering more spreads than anyone keeps thinking they will. As such, 45-51 ATS for one of the worst teams in the history of baseball is shockingly good.
28. Colorado Rockies (36-58, runline: 43-51)
The only reason why the Rockies, who are not very good, don’t rank lower is because they cover enough spreads to earn a modicum of respectability. In truth, we’re splitting hairs. In a testament to how bad things are, Colorado plays in a city and stadium where it’s reportedly easy to hit dingers yet not one has smashed more than 15 all year (Ryan McMahon).
29. New York Mets (43-50, runline: 37-56)
What in the world happened here? How can a can team that did so well until late in the 2022 season be so bad in 2023? Even signing Justin Verlander hasn’t helped as he’s meandering with a 3-5 win-loss record. To be fair, Kodai Senga is having a good year (7-5, 3.20 ERA).
30. Kansas City Royals (27-68, runline: 33-62)
If putting the team that’s covered the most spread at number one is a logical start, then putting the club that’s covered the least at the bottom only makes sense. It helps that the Royals are just bad. Granted, Kansas City isn’t the city that’s going to lose its team, but they are just in front of Oakland in a lot of important statistical categories, and in some cases not by much.