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MLB Odds: Will the Toronto Blue Jays go deep in the playoffs?

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Last year, the Toronto Blue entered the playoffs as the top wild-card seed only to lose two deflating home games against the Seattle Mariners in a series they were favoured to win. This year, the Jays barely scraped into the playoffs as the final wild-card team and they head to Minnesota as a series underdog. Can Toronto reverse the curse from last year’s short playoff run?

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Baltimore, Houston and Minnesota punched their tickets to the postseason by clinching their respective divisions in the American League. Atlanta, Milwaukee and the L.A. Dodgers are the National League division winners. The AL wild-card teams are Tampa Bay, Texas and Toronto, while Philadelphia, Miami and Arizona are their NL counterparts.

The best-of-three wild-card round kicks off Tuesday, with the full series being played in the higher seed’s city. Here’s how the wild-card bracket stands:

American League

Orioles (1), Astros (2) have byes as top seeds

Blue Jays (6) at Twins (3)

Rangers (5) at Rays (4)

National League

Braves (1), Dodgers (2) have byes as top seeds

D-Backs (6) at Brewers (3)

Marlins (5) at Phillies (4)

Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays finished third in the AL East with an 89-73 record, clinching the final AL wild-card spot on the last day of the regular season.

Toronto and Minnesota split the season series 3-3. The Jays took two of three meetings on the road in May, while Minnesota took two of three in Toronto in June.

Toronto’s offence stumbled down the stretch, but came alive against Tampa Bay over the weekend. After being shutout in two of three games against the Yankees, the Blue Jays bounced back to put up 24 runs in three games against the Rays, although they dropped the series 2-1.

Kevin Gausman will get the ball for Toronto in Game 1. Gausman has a 12-9 record this season, ranking fourth in the American League with a 3.16 ERA. His 237 strikeouts led the American League.

The Game 2 starter will likely come down to either Chris Bassitt (16-8, 3.60 ERA) or Jose Berrios (11-12, 3.65 ERA). Bassitt has struggled on the road this season, posting a 4.50 ERA compared to a 2.86 ERA in Toronto. The edge could go to Berrios, who spent eight seasons in Minnesota.

Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer will anchor the batting lineup. Bichette finished the regular season with a .306 batting average and 20 home runs, while Guerrero had a .264 BA with 26 homers and Springer hit .268 with 21 home runs.

Minnesota Twins

Minnesota won the AL Central division, but the Twins actually had a worse regular season record than Toronto, finishing 87-75.

Minnesota has quietly been one of the better teams in baseball over the last month, going 18-10 in September thanks to one of the hottest offences in the majors. The Twins averaged 6.25 runs per game over the last month, including five games of at least 10 runs scored. For context, Atlanta led all baseball with 5.85 runs per game in 2023.

The Twins will counter with Pablo Lopez in Game 1 and Sonny Gray in Game 2. Lopez finished the regular season with an 11-8 record and a 3.66 ERA. He finished second in the AL with 234 strikeouts. Gray went 8-8 and his 2.79 ERA ranked second-best in the American League.

Minnesota led the AL with 233 home runs in the regular season despite having no player rank in the top 20. Max Kepler led the team with 24 home runs and had a .260 batting average. Canadian rookie Edouard Julien, who hit 16 homers with a .263 BA, will continue to hit leadoff. Julien led the Twins with a .381 on-base percentage.