MLB Odds: Who should be the Game 1 starter for the Blue Jays in the playoffs?
The Toronto Blue Jays hold a four-game lead in the AL East standings and they have the second-best record in the entire American League. Simply stated, the Jays are postseason-bound.
But, can can this rotation compete with baseball’s best in October? Let’s do some early scouting and see who should be Toronto’s Game 1 starter in the playoffs.
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Blue Jays rotation
The Blue Jays took a big gamble adding Shane Bieber at the trade deadline and they’ll finally get a look at him in the majors when he makes his season-debut on Friday.
Bieber is a former Cy Young winner with ace-quality talent. However, he hasn’t pitched in the majors since April 2024 when he made two starts with Cleveland before undergoing Tommy John Surgery.
The 30-year-old Bieber realistically hasn’t put up top level statistics since 2022, but he’s look great in Triple-A this season. His average fastball velocity is 92.8 m.p.h, which is the best it’s been since he won the Cy Young in 2020, but he’s still a long way away from proving he’s a Game 1 starter in the playoffs.
| Pitcher | Innings Pitched | ERA |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Gausman | 38 | 2.61 |
| Eric Lauer | 33 | 2.73 |
| Max Scherzer | 37 | 2.92 |
| Chris Bassitt | 37.1 | 4.34 |
| Jose Berrios | 31 | 4.94 |
The chart above goes over the five-man rotation prior to Bieber’s arrival.
Despite Lauer posting the second-best ERA of that group, he’s likely far from being trusted as the Game 1 starter in the playoffs considering he’s been moved to the bullpen to make room for Bieber in the rotation.
Jose Berrios and Chris Bassitt have played themselves out of contention as well, so that leaves Kevin Gausman and Max Scherzer as the most likely Game 1 starters.
Gausman has had some solid outings lately, but there’s also concerns around him. His strikeout rate and home runs per nine innings are both around league average and he ranks 27th among MLB starters in fWAR.
Scherzer is a future Hall-of-Famer with two World Series’ and three Cy Young Awards, but he’s a significant injury risk at 41-years-old. His velocity is a lot better than it was in 2024 and he seems to be peaking at the right time, but it’s tough to forget his early-season thumb issues.
So, who is the Game 1 starter?
If I’m the Blue Jays manager (then something terrible has happened for Toronto) I give the Game 1 ball to Gausman.
Gausman has been Toronto’s most consistent pitcher all season statistically and when it comes to availability and this management team has proven in the past that they rely solely on analytics and data to make their decisions.
When you’re top three options to start are Gausman, who has the best ERA on the team, Scherzer, who is well past his prime at 41, and Bieber, who hasn’t pitched in the majors in over a year, Gausman is the smart choice.