Sports Interaction
Promotions
Sports Interaction
Promotions

MLB Odds: What’s wrong with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.?

Add Sports Interacton as Your Preferred News Source

The 2024 season hasn’t exactly got off to a great start for the Toronto Blue Jays. They’re two games below .500, they’re 3.5 games back of a wild card spot and they trail the Orioles, Yankees and Red Sox in the AL East standings.

An argument can be made that Toronto’s poor results are a direct correlation to an underperforming offence. The Jays rank 26th in runs, 24th in hits, 21st in home runs and 27th in RBI. They also rank 24th in batting average, 16th in on-base percentage, 23rd in slugging percentage and 22nd in OPS. Let’s just say, it’s not a recipe for success.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is by no means the only struggling player, consider Bo Bichette’s career-low batting average, but Guerrero is arguably the most important player on the team as he has proven he can deliver MVP statistics.

So, why have things gone wrong for Guerrero in 2024 and is there time to save his, and by extension the Blue Jays’, season?

Make sure to check out our complete list of MLB game odds, MLB futures and MLB specials and props.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in 2024

There have always been high expectations for Guerrero. He was formerly the No. 1 prospect in baseball and he lived up to the hype with an MVP caliber season in 2021, but his stats have dropped significantly in each of the last two seasons. Through 32 games in 2024, he is hitting .231 with 28 hits, three home runs, 11 RBI and 29 strikeouts.

Guerrero has the highest strikeout rate of his career and he is easily on pace to have a career-worst slash line and OPS. In fact, the 25-year-old is on pace to just barely match his home run and RBI totals for the COVID-shortened 2020 season, which only lasted 60 games.

Time to adjust expectations or cause for hope?

While Bichette is also putting up the worst numbers of his career, he gets the benefit of the doubt because he’s coming off a great 2023 campaign. Guerrero doesn’t get that benefit anymore. His home run and RBI totals have declined for two consecutive seasons and he doesn’t look anywhere near the player who hit 48 home runs and finished second in AL MVP voting in 2021.

When you dig into the analytics, however, there may be a ray of hope for Guerrero’s 2024 season. The numbers suggest he actually may be a bit unlucky at the plate this season. Guerrero’s expected batting average (.274) is 43 points higher than his actual average (.231) and he ranks in the top half of the league in average exit velocity (92.3 mph), hard-hit rate (53.3 per cent) and walk rate (12.9 per cent).

Basically, what the Moneyball fanatics are saying is Guerrero is absolutely hammering balls. Over his last three games he has five hits that were over 112 mph, which is a great sign that his physical attributes haven’t diminished. Whatever is affecting Guerrero is between the ears.

It’s still early in the season, so if Guerrero can get his head right and find a rhythm, it’s still possible he can finish with another 30-home run and 100-RBI campaign in 2024.