MLB Futures and Odds: Cal Raleigh sparking Mariners run for the AL West
The final stretch of the regular season is delivering exactly the kind of chaos fans love.
The Rangers and Giants, both left for dead just two weeks ago, have stormed back into the playoff conversation with dominant runs.
Kyle Schwarber belted his 50th home run for the Phillies, putting him in rare Ryan Howard air, while Aaron Judge passed Yogi Berra on the Yankees’ all-time homer list.
Out West, the Mariners and Astros continue to trade blows in a razor-thin division race, while Mookie Betts has helped the Dodgers reassert control in the NL West, temporarily.
Let’s see how the MLB odds changed this week.
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How did the MLB odds change this week?
The American League West has gone from steady to full-blown volatile. Houston, once firm favourites, have dropped to -115 to win the division after another inconsistent week. Seattle now sits at +120, riding their elite rotation and power bats, while the surging Rangers, winners of seven of their last 10, remain alive at +900. The Rangers’ playoff probability has spiked to 22.7 per cent according to ESPN, while the Mariners are now arguably the most dangerous “underdog” in the league.
In the National League, the Giants have climbed from the grave, up to +550 to make the playoffs after cutting the gap in the Wild Card race. ESPN now gives them a 7.7 per cent chance to sneak in, and if the Mets’ slide continues, that number could keep rising. As of Sept. 10, before the series finale in Philadelphia, New York has dropped four straight and faces a brutal upcoming schedule featuring the Rangers, Padres, and Cubs, plus the frisky Marlins in Miami to end the season. By contrast, San Francisco closes the season with the Cardinals and Rockies, which is an inviting final stretch if they can survive a seven-game gauntlet against the Dodgers.
On the awards front, Cubs rookie pitcher Cade Horton is now the odds-on favourite for NL Rookie of the Year at -125, leapfrogging Braves catcher Drake Baldwin. Horton’s September dominance, including a five-inning no-hit showcase against Baldwin head-to-head, has shifted momentum firmly in his direction.
Best MLB futures bet to lock in right now: Giants to make the playoffs (+550)
This is the type of bet that futures markets are made for. San Francisco has caught fire at the perfect time, and their schedule gives them a chance to close strong. With the Mets stumbling and still facing a gauntlet of contenders, the Giants are positioned to sneak into October. The Rockies and Cardinals at home to finish the season could be the gift they need. At +550 odds, the value is too good to pass up.
MLB futures prediction: Mariners to win the AL West (+120)
Seattle’s pitching staff is built for the grind, and deadline additions like Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez have balanced their lineup around stars Julio Rodríguez, Randy Arozarena, and Cal Raleigh. Houston, meanwhile, has struggled to find consistency with a lack of rotation depth, and their closing schedule, finishing up the current series against Toronto, then playing all four division opponents, including the A’s and Angels on the road, is hardly friendly. The Mariners still face the Astros head-to-head, giving them the chance to take matters into their own hands. At +120, Seattle is the pick to finally surpass Houston and steal the division crown.
