MLB Futures and Odds: Blue Jays closing in on first AL East title in 10 years
The playoff picture has tightened again as September winds down. The Toronto Blue Jays continue to roll and have essentially locked up the AL East. The Mariners are the hottest team in baseball and have put the pressure on the Astros in the AL West.
In the National League, the Phillies have been red-hot, and a winning series in Los Angeles against the Dodgers has made them the World Series favourites for the moment.
Let’s see how the MLB odds have changed this week.
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How did the MLB odds change this week?
The AL East is essentially off the board now. Toronto’s relentless stretch has pushed them to -3300 to win the division, with both New York and Boston now effectively priced out of contention. A week ago, the Jays were small favourites, but their surge has blown the market wide open.
The most significant shift came in the AL West. Seattle was priced at +120 last Thursday, and now, following their 10-game win streak, the Mariners are -105 to win the division. Houston’s play has pushed them to -125, while Texas, once back in the conversation, has faded again.
World Series markets have also tightened at the top. The Phillies have overtaken the Dodgers as the outright favourite, now listed at +450 compared to Los Angeles at +550. Seattle’s surge has also boosted its pennant odds — they sit at +400 to win the AL, third behind Toronto and Detroit.
In awards markets, Cubs rookie Cade Horton continues to separate in the NL Rookie of the Year race. He has shortened again, moving from -125 to -275 after another dominant start, while Braves catcher Drake Baldwin has slid to +200.
Best MLB futures bet to lock in right now: Mariners to win the American League Pennant (+400)
Seattle looks like the most complete team in the AL. Julio Rodríguez is on fire with 30 homers and his second 30/30 season in sight, while Cal Raleigh’s home-run slugging MVP campaign has been a revelation.
The rotation, led by Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Bryan Woo, is unmatched in its varied quality. Add in a stacked bullpen with Andrés Muñoz and Matt Brash, plus a lineup reinforced by trade deadline additions Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez, and this is the rare roster that checks every October box.
At +400, the value remains strong for a team peaking at the right time.
MLB futures prediction: World Series League of Winning Team – NL (-138)
It may not be flashy, but the National League looks stronger top-to-bottom than the AL. Between the Phillies, Dodgers, and Brewers, plus dangerous Wild Card clubs like the Padres and Cubs, the NL is simply deeper. Compare that to the AL, where Seattle and Toronto are legitimate but relatively untested in October, while Houston lacks depth, and New York and Boston remain inconsistent. Toronto’s bullpen in particular raises red flags in high-leverage postseason situations.
With the NL boasting more proven playoff arms and balanced lineups, the safe prediction is that the 2025 World Series champion will come from the senior circuit.
