Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Mets: Odds, Prediction
The Mets opened as -130 favourites on the MLB odds with a total of 7.5 runs.
Betting Analysis
The New York Mets have the richest individual owner in Major League Baseball in Steve Cohen, and he was never going to be outbid for superstar free-agent outfielder Juan Soto in free agency this past winter. Soto had the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox and, yes, Blue Jays among his finalists and took an historic 15-year, $765 million (US) deal from Cohen.
Are the Mets again a playoff team after adding Soto? They got in as a Wild-Card team in 2024 and made a surprise run to the NLCS without him, so if New York gets enough starting pitching the chances are good – and Cohen won’t be afraid to trade for any big contract. The Mets are -200 to get back to the postseason and +165 for no.
While no player soon is going to top Soto’s total contract value, it did reset the market for Toronto superstar Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who reportedly offered the Jays a deal that was significantly lower than Soto got. After losing out on Soto, the Jays opted to sign former Orioles slugger Anthony Santander for protection around Guerrero Jr. Santander had more homers and nearly the same amount of RBI last year with the Orioles as Soto did with the Yankees, for what that’s worth.
The Blue Jays hosted the Mets for three games last September and lost two of three. Toronto was last at Citi Field in Queens in 2023 and swept three games.
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto enters on a four-game winning streak and swept a three-game home set from Washington (all by multiple runs) thanks to Wednesday’s 4-2 victory. Good thing the Jays were off Thursday because closer Jeff Hoffman finished the final two games vs. the Nats and likely wouldn’t have been available. He has been excellent with three saves and a 2.25 ERA in four appearances. George Springer hit his first homer of the season Wednesday and is red-hot at .429 with two doubles and five RBI. New addition and second baseman Andres Gimenez also has looked good, hitting .308 with eight runs scored.
Righty Kevin Gausman (1-0, 3.00) makes his second start of the season after beating Baltimore last Friday, allowing two runs and three hits over six in a quality start. Gausman was terrific on the road in 2024 at 8-5 with a 2.51 ERA. He is 1-3 with a 5.16 ERA in 22.2 career innings against the Mets but hasn’t seen them since August 2021 while with the Giants. New Met Juan Soto hammers Gausman, going 8-for-15 with two doubles, a homer and 12 walks. The under is 5-0 in Toronto’s past five away.
New York Mets
It’s the home opener for the Mets after losing their opening series in Houston and then winning two of three in Miami to open this week. So it will be a bit of a big atmosphere with the opener and obviously Juan Soto’s home Mets debut. Sometimes when guys sign a massive free-agent contract they press early in the season to justify all that money, and Soto might be doing that so far as he’s hitting .238 with a homer and two RBI. The team is not yet whole with terrific young catcher Francisco Alvarez and second baseman and former NL batting champion Jeff McNeil both on the injured list.
Right-hander Tylor Megill (1-0, 1.80 ERA) makes his second start of 2025. He went five strong at Houston last Friday in a victory and was 2-3 with a 3.56 ERA 10 appearances at Citi Field last year. Megill is 1-0 with a 0.52 ERA over 17.1 career innings vs. Toronto. New Blue Jays slugger Anthony Santander is 2-for-3 with a double and homer career off Megill. The Mets are 10-3 in their past 13 vs. AL East foes.
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