Blue Jays vs. Mariners MLB Odds: Seven questions ahead of ALCS Game 7

The two best words in sports are Game 7 and that’s what we have on tap in Toronto on Monday as the Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners square off for a chance to reach the World Series.

Toronto saved their season on Sunday, cruising to a 6-2 victory in Game 6 thanks to a strong pitching performance from rookie Trey Yesavage and another timely home run from Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Can the Blue Jays complete the comeback and punch their ticket to a World Series matchup against the Los Angeles Dodgers, or will Seattle reach the Fall Classic for the first time in franchise history?

Here’s seven questions ahead of Game 7.

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1. How much will home-field advantage matter for Toronto?

This can only benefit the Blue Jays. Toronto has been one of the best home teams in baseball this year, posting a sterling 57-29 record at Rogers Centre throughout the regular season and playoffs.

The Jays fans have been electric, with multiple players complimenting the loud atmosphere. However, the crowd was also loud in Games 1 and 2 and the Mariners still found a way to win.

Getting an early lead and building the crowd up will be key in Game 7.

2. Will Seattle continue to find a way to win when it matters most?

There was a clear narrative Seattle was spinning after the Game 6 loss and it revolved around their ability to bounce back and find a way to win when it matters most. But, good vibes and energy can only take you so far.

If the Mariners think they can win the ALCS and the World Series with a 28.1 per cent strikeout rate, they’re sorely mistaken.

3. Which team has the pitching advantage?

It will be Toronto’s Shane Bieber versus Seattle’s George Kirby starting in Game 7, but nearly every pitcher from both teams will be available with the season on the line.

You have to give the edge to the Blue Jays, simply because it’s a rematch of Toronto’s 13-4 Game 3 shellacking of the Mariners. Kirby was chased from that game after allowing eight hits and eight earned runs over just four innings.

Bieber pitched a clean six innings, recording eight strikeouts while allowing four hits and two earned runs.

The relief edge probably goes to Seattle as Toronto’s bullpen has been an area of concern this season, but the gap is much closer with Kevin Gausman available if needed.

4. Which player needs to deliver for the Mariners?

It’s tempting to say Cal Raleigh, but I have to go with Kirby after the way he was torched in Game 3. Seattle’s starting pitchers in general have been terrorized by the Blue Jays bats in this series and you can’t let the crowd get going early by coughing up a quick lead.

Seattle doesn’t need Kirby to win them the game, but they need him to give five or six strong innings.

5. Which player needs to deliver for the Blue Jays?

I went with a pitcher for the Mariners, so I’ll go with one of the hottest bats in the playoffs for Toronto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. In the Blue Jays’ six playoff wins this year, Guerrero is 15-for-26 with five home runs, 10 RBIs and just one strikeout over 30 plate appearances.

Getting a good outing from Bieber will be important, but it’s Guerrero who has the potential to put the team on his back.

6. Which unexpected player will deliver in Game 7?

Give me Ernie Clement. A .227 hitter in the regular season this year, Clement is batting .447 in the playoffs and he’s provided a big spark to the back of the lineup.

Clement’s ability to put the ball in play will be particularly important if the Mariners elect to pitch around Guerrero and put him on base.

7. Who will win Game 7?

Here’s a stat I wouldn’t have guess: In playoff baseball, home teams are just 71-67 in winner-take-all games. I would have thought home field would be more important, but it’s essentially a coin flip when it comes to the post season.

I’m still going with Toronto. The Blue Jays already won this pitching matchup earlier in the series and while Seattle has the Big Dumper in Cal Raleigh, the Jays have game-breakers throughout the lineup with likes of Guerrero, George Springer (if healthy), Alejandro Kirk, etc.

Bonus Q: Which team matches up better for the Dodgers in the World Series?

Which team should the L.A. Dodgers want to see in the World Series? The Dodgers are so good, I think they’re happy with whoever they face, but I’ll say Seattle because it gives L.A. home field advantage and easier travel.

L.A.’s roster is littered with future Hall-of-Famers and whoever they face, they’ll open as favourites to defend their World Series title.