Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians: Odds, Prediction
The Guardians are -112 favourites on the MLB odds with a total of 8.5 runs.
Betting Analysis
This marks the final series of the season between the Blue Jays and Cleveland after Toronto lost two of three at home in early May – the winning team in all three games scored exactly five runs. Guardians excellent closer Emmanuel Clase closed out both his team’s wins. Clase was an un-hittable Cy Young candidate in 2024 who got off to a bit of a slow start this year but is back in form with a 1.86 ERA and six saves this month.
Guardians leadoff hitter Steven Kwan had a good first series, going 7-for-13 with a double. Daniel Schneemann hit .444 with two doubles, two homers and four runs scored. Andres Gimenez was 5-for-12 with two RBIs for the Jays. George Springer was 3-for-9 with a double and homer.
This is a potentially important series for the AL Wild-Card race as the Blue Jays aren’t likely to win the AL East and the Guardians very unlikely to win the Central. Toronto currently holds the AL’s No. 2 Wild-Card spot and Cleveland is tied for the last one with Seattle.
Note that Toronto’s Max Scherzer will return from a long injury absence to start Wednesday’s game on the mound, which has pushed a few other guys back a day.
Toronto Blue Jays
If Toronto misses the playoffs by a game, circle this weekend’s past series where the Jays lost two of three at home to very bad White Sox team that entered the series with just seven road wins in 2025. Jeff Hoffman blew the save in Sunday’s 4-2 loss as the Jays coughed up a 2-1 eighth-inning lead. Hoffman had been so good early in the season but since the start of May owns a 9.00 ERA with 17 runs allowed over 17 innings, including seven home runs. Manager John Schneider said after Sunday’s loss that he’s not contemplating a closer change. You just can’t lose a home series like that, especially ahead of a road trip to fellow AL playoff contenders Cleveland and Boston.
Lefty Eric Lauer (3-1, 2.29 ERA) takes the mound Tuesday for his 11th appearance and fifth start of the year. He went a season-high five innings last time out vs. Arizona and got the win, allowing one run and four hits. Lauer also had a season-high eight Ks and has been a terrific addition. The 30-year-old missed the Guardians earlier and his only outing against them was a start in Cleveland in September 2021 while with Milwaukee. He allowed one run and three hits over 5.1 innings in a victory. Lane Thomas is 3-for-6 off him with a double and triple. The Jays are 16-20 away.
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland just finished a nine-game road trip at 4-5 following a 3-0 win in Sacramento on Sunday. After the Guardians were swept in Seattle last weekend, they won consecutive series at the Giants and A’s. Guardians starting pitchers have the third-best ERA in the AL since June 1 and have yielded three-or-fewer runs in 15 of 19 of those games.
If’s lefty Logan Allen (5-4, 4.21) on the mound Tuesday. He has a 2.79 ERA in seven night outings in 2025 compared to 6.18 during the day. Allen pitched in Toronto on May 2 and took a no-decision, allowing three runs (two earned) and six hits over 5.2 innings. A few Blue Jays have good but limited splits off him: George Springer is 3-for-7 with two homers, Davis Schneider is 3-for-5 with a double and homer, and Ernie Clement is 2-for-5 with two doubles. Toronto is 10-8 this year vs. lefties like Allen; Cleveland is only 7-14 against southpaws like Eric Lauer.
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CLE