2024 MLB Odds: Early injuries are shaking up AL and NL Cy Young odds

Injuries on the mound have become a hot topic in baseball early in the 2024 season as star players like Spencer Strider and Shane Bieber are among several notable pitchers to have undergone season-ending shoulder surgery.

That’s left the Cy Young field wide open in both the American League and the National League, so let’s take a look at some of the top contenders to bring home some hardware at the end of the year.

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American League Cy Young odds

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Corbin Burnes hasn’t missed a beat in his first season in Baltimore. The 2021 NL Cy Young winner with Milwaukee is 2-0 with a 2.28 ERA in his first four outings. Burnes finished with 11 strikeouts in six innings on Opening Day and overall he’s recorded 25 strikeouts in 23.2 innings. His .093 WHIP is better than last year when he led the NL with a 1.07 WHIP and most importantly, the Orioles are 4-0 when Burnes has started.

In four starts, Detroit’s Tarik Skubal has put together a 2-0 record with a 2.28 ERA and 26 strikeouts over 23.2 innings pitched. Skubal’s .080 WHIP is top-10 in both leagues and he ranks in the 93rd percentile or better in opponents’ average exit velocity (83.6 mph), hard-hit rate (22 per cent) and expected batting average (.155).

Cole Ragans is just 0-1 in four starts this season. The stats, however, say Ragans is much better than his record as Kansas City’s lack of run support has led to losses in two games when Ragans allowed no runs. The former Rangers pitcher has given Kansas City quality outings while producing an elite 1.93 ERA. Ragans’ changeup and knuckle curve have been particularly effective, generating 50.1 per cent and 66.7 per cent whiffs, respectively.

Sleeper pick

Toronto’s Jose Berrios is having arguably the best start to a season of his career, posting a 3-0 record in four starts while ranking third in the American League in ERA (1.05).

National League Cy Young odds

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In four starts, Arizona’s Zac Gallen has a 3-0 record with a sparkling 1.64 ERA while allowing no home runs. He also has 26 strikeouts with a 1.14 WHIP across 22 innings pitched. If you dig deeper into the stats, Gallen is posting career-bests in ground ball rate (47.3 per cent), fly ball rate (12.7 per cent) and barrel rate (1.8 per cent) and his slider is generating whiffs at a 60 per cent rate, which is roughly twice as much as last season.

Zack Wheeler is another pitcher suffering from lack of run support. Wheeler has an 0-3 record and the Phillies have lost all four of his starts, but Philadelphia scored two or fewer runs in three of those games. Wheeler has the third-most strikeouts in the National League while pitching 24 innings. He’s also boasting the best strikeout rate of his career (30 per cent) and his 37.6 per cent chase rate ranks in the 94th percentile across MLB.

Milwaukee’s Freddy Peralta has a 2-0 record and the Brewers have won all three of his starts. Peralta has allowed just one earned run in two of the three starts and he currently leads the National League in both WHIP (0.68) and strikeouts per nine innings pitched (13.25). He has all the tools that make a dominant pitcher, posting a 39.4 per cent strikeout rate, three per cent walk rate and a .191 expected batting average.

Sleeper pick

Cincinnati’s Hunter Greene has a below average 4.35 ERA, but his elite hard contact numbers have pushed his expected ERA to 2.49, so he could be on the cusp of much better results.

Last 10 Cy Young winners