World Cup 2018 Qualifiers: Italy vs. Sweden Odds, Prediction

Ryan Stetson
November 9, 2017

The first leg of four World Cup qualifying playoff matches are this week, and the most intriguing matchup likely is Italy visiting Sweden. A World Cup without the Italians? Could happen.

Italy at Sweden

When: Friday, 2:45 p.m. ET
Where: Friends Arena, Stockholm
Moneylines: Italy +127, Sweden +230, Draw +197

Betting Analysis

The second leg of this playoff is at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milan on Monday. The four European playoff matches feature the eight second-placed nations in their qualifying groups – Europe gets 14 total teams into next summer’s World Cup in Russia.

Italy is 10-6-6 all-time vs. Sweden. The counties last played in the 2016 European Championship, a 1-0 win by the Azzurri. Eder’s late strike two minutes from time was the winner, set up by Simone Zaza. Swedish star Zlatan Ibrahimovic missed a chance to become the first man to score in four successive European Championships. He retired from national team duty after Euro 2016.

Sweden’s last win vs. Italy was in a 1998 friendly.

Sweden

The Swedes finished tied atop Group A with France but lost the tiebreaker. On Oct. 7, Sweden destroyed Luxembourg 8-0 in a qualifier – the country’s biggest margin of victory since 1938 — but then closed group play with a 2-0 loss to the Netherlands, which shockingly failed to qualify for Russia. Sweden went unbeaten at home in qualifying at Friends Arena and Marcus Berg scored eight times in nine matches. He had four in the win over Luxembourg.

Sweden has made 11 World Cup appearances overall but has failed to qualify for the past two, most recently losing in a European playoff to Portugal. The country’s best result was on home soil in 1958 when it finished runner-up.

It’s the fourth World Cup playoff in Swedish history and their only win was 2-1 over Austria in qualifying for the 1974 tournament in Germany.

Italy

The Italians finished second in UEFA Group G qualifying behind Spain. Both finished with 16 points, but Spain was 1-0-1 in the head-to-head, including a 3-0 home victory on Sept. 2. The Azzurri haven’t lost since, beating Israel 1-0, drawing with Macedonia 1-1 and beating Albania 1-0 in their last match on Oct. 9.

While Americans were flipping out when Team USA failed to qualify for the 2018 World Cup last month, that’s a blip worldwide compared to if Italy were to miss out. Italy is a four-time World Cup champion (most recently in 2006), tied for second-most with Germany and behind only Brazil. The last time Italy failed to qualify for the World Cup was in 1958 when it was ironically held in Sweden. The last major tournament the Italians missed was the 1992 European Championships.

Italy’s coach – for now – is Giampiero Ventura, who took over following the departure of Antonio Conte to English Premier League’s Chelsea following Euro 2016. Ventura’s job is absolutely on the line in this two-leg playoff. He made a few interesting call-ups for the playoff, including Zaza, Alessandro Florenzi and Jorginho. None have played for the national team in about a year. Zaza is playing really well in the Spanish La Liga for Valencia.

Of the eight teams in the European playoffs, Italy is the only former champion. These could be the final two matches for Italian captain and legend Gianluigi Buffon, who is retiring from the national team.