Canada vs Guatemala Prediction, CONCACAF Gold Cup Odds

Edgar Chaput
June 30, 2023

After a brutal 2-2 draw against Guadeloupe to start their Gold Cup campaign, the Canadian men’s national team look to restore pride and get the tournament back on track against Guatemala on Canada Day.

Incidentally, although their first match was at Toronto’s BMO Field, this one is down in Houston at Shell Energy Stadium where the MLS’s Houston Dynamo play.

The Concacaf Gold Cup odds pin Canada has the favourite, sitting at -192. Guatemala is far behind at +480, and a draw is priced at +320.

Canada -185
Draw +295
Guatemala +500

CANMNT vs Guatemala Betting Analysis

It’s been a while since Canada and Guatemala have seen each other on the same pitch, and even longer since it was in a high-stakes contest. Their last tête-à-tête was way back in March 2015 for a friendly which the Canadians won 1-0. As for the most recent truly competitive scenario, it was at the 2007 Gold Cup, a match the maple leaf representatives took 3-0.

Historically, Canada holds a 10-2-2 edge over their Central American rivals.

Canada’s men are currently ranked 45 by FIFA, whereas Guatemala’s are 116. Judging by some recent performances by the Canadian squad, one gets the sense that their world ranking benefits from their participation in last year’s World Cup in Qatar.

Canada

The Gold Cup has not got off to the start that coach John Herdman hoped for. Alphonso Davies, Jonathan David, Ismael Kone, Alistair Johnson, Cyle Larin, the list of players who would give Canada a major boost but are absent is extensive. Injuries to nurse, club summertime duties and, frankly, some much-needed rest before European league seasons commence in August explain the B-side identity to the team in this Gold Cup.

That probably explained a lot of what happened at BMO Field on Tuesday night. Guadeloupe came to town to get their Gold Cup ambition underway and, to be perfectly honest, looked like the better team for much of the night. Thierry Ambrose was a force to be reckoned with, and Canada barely did. He opened the scoring in the 23^rd minute off a clever bit of passing and individual skill in the box that beat keeper Milan Borjan. Lucas Cavallini levelled terms on a penalty early in the second half before some clumsy Guadeloupe defending handed an own goal to the hosts. Speaking of clumsiness, Canadian substitute Jacen Russell-Rowe made an attempt in the 92^nd minute to block a low cross into the box…but put the ball into his own net. A deflating 2-2 draw to say the least.

Guatemala

Regardless of their respective FIFA world rankings, there is no question that of the two teams that will square off down in Houston on Saturday night, the Guatemalans enter the contest brimming with confidence.

Cuba is no world beater, but Guatemala looked emphatically like the superior side. The ball movement was smooth and the scoring chances were plenty. Cuban keeper Raiko Arozarena made several brilliant saves to keep his side in the contest, but his teammates rarely answered the call. Darwin Lom scored the only goal of the match in the 48^th minute, sending a low shot through a defender’s legs and diagonally across that beat the Cuban keeper. It was a well-deserved lead and perhaps the Central Americans should have padded it. The 1-0 final flattered Cuba. Technically Canada is the better team, but Guatemala looks better at this stage of the tournament.