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NHL Odds: Alex Ovechkin on pace to break Wayne Gretzky’s goal-scoring record this season

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Alex Ovechkin just hit the 30-goal mark for a record-extending 19th time on Tuesday and with four goals in two games since returning from the 4 Nations Face-Off break, he isn’t slowing down anytime soon.

Sitting 12 goals shy breaking Wayne Gretzky’s all-time record, can the Great-8 knock off the Great One this season?

When will Ovechkin break the record?

With the pace Ovechkin has played at all year and the way Washington is dominating the NHL, I think it’s absurd that oddsmakers don’t think he’ll break the record this season. Let’s do the math. Ovi has 30 goals in 42 games, which averages to 0.71 goals per game. If he continues at that pace and plays the remaining 24 regular season games on the Capitals’ schedule, he will notch another 17 goals, easily breaking the record this season.

If we stick with 0.71 goals per game as the pace, that means Ovechkin will break the record in 17 games. A quick look at the calendar shows us Washington plays in Carolina 17 games from now on April 2. That’s pretty good value at +675 for Ovechkin to break the record, but keep in mind they also play the Blackhawks the next game and you have to think he’ll light up Chicago.

But what NHL fan wouldn’t want to see Ovechkin break the record in the Capitals’ regular season finale in Pittsburgh against longtime rival Sidney Crosby and the Penguins?

When you think of Alex Ovechkin scoring, you picture him teeing up a one-timer at the top of the circle on the power play. And there’s good reason you think of that as Ovechkin has scored more power play goals than anyone in NHL history by a wide margin. His 320 snipes on the man advantage accounts for 36.2 per cent of all his goals, while no one else in NHL history has ever topped 300.

A short-handed tally for Ovechkin is a long shot as he’s only done it five times in his career and at 39-years-old, Washington will manage his ice time to focus on even strength and power play minutes. And while Ovechkin is also the all-time leader in empty-net goals, I don’t believe he’d be willing to break the record that way. I lean heavily to this historic record being broken with a classic Ovi snipe on the power play.