UFC on Fuel TV 7: Can Michael McDonald Upset Renan Barao?

What Are The Odds?

The odds are stacked against Michael McDonald in his bantamweight interim title fight Saturday against Renan Barao on UFC on Fuel TV 7. First off, McDonald is just 22 years old and is looking to become the UFC’s youngest champion ever. And then there’s his opponent. Barao is coming off a huge win over Urijah Faber last summer, improving to 29-1-1 with 13 submissions, and hasn’t lost a fight since way back in 2005. That’s why McDonald is set as a +245 underdog against Barao (-340).

The Scoop on McDonald

McDonald isn’t like most of his UFC counterparts. He’s quiet, mature, and says he isn’t overly fond of hurting people. You won’t hear him calling out his opponents to market a bout. He takes fight advice from his dad, a mechanic, and cites his adaptability as one of his best attributes as a fighter. “I primarily consider myself a martial artist and martial arts comes first,” McDonald told reporters. “Athletics comes second. Another thing that I do is I actually customise myself very, very minimally for each fight.” So far, whatever he has done has worked pretty well. He is 15-1 with nine knockouts under his belt already and looked great in knocking out Miguel Torres in UFC 145.

Getting Your Kicks

If McDonald has any chance in upsetting Barao, he needs to be very careful with Barao’s kicks. Faber would tell McDonald all about it. Barao constantly chopped at Faber’s legs to keep him off balance and wear him down, while using high kicks to keep Faber at distance. Once one of those land, he rushes in to attack inside. That was likely the difference in that fight. After Barao won that decision, Faber told reporters that one of Barao’s flying knees broke one of his ribs. “I knew he was really good at keeping distance,” Faber said. “He has really long punches and was able to throw his kicks from really far out. He was a little more difficult to get in on for takedowns.”

Prediction

So, does McDonald have a chance here? Definitely. He hits hard and certainly won’t make it easy on Barao. He’s hungry, too, while Barao has had one fight in the last 504 days. If McDonald can get to him early, he has the power to knock out Barao, but he’d better take care of business early. The longer this fight goes, the more it shifts in Barao’s favor. He has the experience to figure McDonald out with time. If you take a flier on McDonald, I won’t blame you. I think he grabs an early round and puts a scare into Barao, but I’m not sure he’s ready for this sort of test yet. Barao submits him in the third round.