The UFC brings a mixed martial arts card to Canada for the first time since last summer and to Ottawa for the first time ever as Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 89 card at TD Place Arena is headlined by a important welterweight bout between top contenders Rory MacDonald and Stephen Thompson, with both listed at -115 to win on Sports Interaction’s MMA odds. The main card is set to begin at 10:30 p.m. EDT and can be seen on TSN 5 and RDS 2 in Canada.
Rory MacDonald vs. Stephen Thompson Odds
There have been 19 previous UFC events in Canada across eight cities — Calgary, Halifax, Montreal, Quebec City, Saskatoon, Toronto, Vancouver and Winnipeg. The most recent was Aug. 23, 2015, a UFC Fight Night 74 card headlined by a featherweight bout between Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira. Holloway won that by TKO in 99 seconds.
It’s fair to assume the MacDonald-Thompson bout won’t be over that quickly. The over/under for total rounds is 2.5, with the over a -275 betting favourite. And the winner could get a shot at current 170-pound champion Robbie Lawler, assuming Lawler beats Tyron Woodley at UFC 201 on July 30 in Atlanta. Lawler is a heavy favourite to retain the title.
MacDonald, a 26-year-old who fights out of Tristar Gym in Montreal – home to longtime former welterweight champion Georges St-Pierre – is rated as UFC’s No. 1 contender in the division. MacDonald (18-3) comes off his second career loss to Lawler, by fifth-round TKO (punches) at UFC 189 in a July 2015 title fight in Las Vegas. A Lawler left hand in the fifth round appeared to injure the “Red King” and after a short delay, the referee ended the fight. That was Lawler’s first defense of his welterweight belt. It was a fantastic, back-and-forth battle and was named 2015’s Fight of the Year. Lawler was down 39-37 on all three judges’ scorecards entering the final round.
The other two losses in MacDonald’s career were a three-round split decision to Lawler at UFC 167 in November 2013 and a third-round TKO loss to Carlos Condit at UFC 115 in June 2010. MacDonald handily beat Woodley, for what it’s worth, at UFC 174 in June 2014 and said he was surprised that the UFC gave Woodley a title shot against Lawler. Seven of MacDonald’s wins are by KO/TKO and six by submission.
The 33-year-old Thompson (12-1) is an American who last fought in the Octagon in February at UFC Fight Night 82 and beat former welterweight champion Johny Hendricks in an upset by first-round TKO (punches). Hendricks, a former NCAA champion wrestler, couldn’t land a single takedown and had just 11 strikes compared to Thompson’s 25. It was the first time Hendricks lost by KO/TKO in his career. A spinning kick by “Wonderboy” wobbled Hendricks and forced the referee to end the bout. Thompson, who has seven KO/TKO wins, is now the No. 2 contender in the division. He has won six straight fights since his lone loss, a unanimous decision to Matt Brown at UFC 145 in April 2012.
MacDonald vs. Thompson Prediction
That Thompson wins this fight by KO, TKO or DQ is the +175 favourite. MacDonald winning by one of those results is +425. A draw is a +5100 long-shot. The home crowd gives MacDonald an edge, and he wins by unanimous decision at +255.
MacDonald by Unanimous Decision
UFC Fight Night 89 Main Card
Donald Cerrone (-155) vs. Patrick Cote (+120) Steve Bosse (-165) vs. Sean O’Connell (+130) Olivier Aubin-Mercier (-400) vs. Thibault Gouti (+280) Joanne Calderwood (+150) vs. Valerie Letourneau (-190)
