UFC 316 Odds, Prediction: Julianna Pena vs. Kayla Harrison
The books see a mismatch as Kaylah Harrison is -750 on the MMA odds and Julianna Pena is a +525 underdog for the scheduled five-round fight.
UFC 316 Odds: Julianna Pena
The 35-year-old Pena is from Spokane, Wash., and is ranked as the No. 3 pound-for-pound fighter among UFC women behind flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko and strawweight champ Zhang Weili. Pena faced Shevchenko in a bantamweight non-title fight in 2017 and lost by second-round submission.
Since then, “the Venezuelan Vixen” is 4-2 and this is her fourth straight title bout. Pena won the belt the first time with a second-round submission (rear-naked choke) of the legendary Amanda Nunes at UFC 269 in December 2021. That was considered one of the biggest upsets in UFC history. The two had a rematch at UFC 277, and Nunes regained the belt with a unanimous decision victory.
A trilogy fight was scheduled for UFC 289 but Pena pulled out of the bout due to broken ribs she sustained during training camp. Pena did get another title shot last time in the Octagon in October 2024 as she beat Raquel Pennington by split decision, although that was hugely controversial as nearly every media member in attendance scored it as a win for Pennington. Two judges scored the five-round fight 48-47 for Pena, while a third had it 48-47 for Pennington. The deciding round proved to be the first, as all three judges agreed Pena won Rounds 2 and 3, while Pennington won Rounds 4 and 5.
Pena joined the retired Nunes as the only two-time champions in the history of the 135-pound division, and Pena became is one of eight fighters in history, male of female, to win a season of “The Ultimate Fighter” reality series and a UFC title. Pena’s eight total victories in UFC women’s bantamweight competition are tied for third-most in divisional history behind Nunes’ 13 and Pennington’s 12.
The 5-foot-6 Pena has a reach of 69 inches and her fights average 13:32. She lands 3.25 significant strikes per minute with 44 per cent defence and absorbs 2.53 with 57 per cent defence. Her takedown average is 1.81 per 15 minutes with 56 per cent accuracy, and her takedown defence is 23 per cent.
Pena’s favoured method of victory Saturday is by decision at +1100, with submission at +1200 and KO/TKO/DG at +2000. To win in Round 1, she is +3000. A draw is +5000.
UFC 316 Odds: Kayla Harrison
The 34-year-old Harrison, from Ohio, is 18-1 in her professional MMA career and ranked as the No. 2 contender in the women’s bantamweight division and No. 7 on the pound-for-pound list. She is a former Professional Fighters League lightweight champion who also won the 2010 World Judo Championships as well as gold medals at the 2012 and 2016 Summer Olympics in judo.
Harrison is one of four Olympic gold medalists to fight in the UFC, along with Henry Cejudo, Kevin Jackson and Mark Schultz. She’s the only multi-time gold medalist in company history. Harrison’s lone loss came via unanimous decision in the PFL to Larissa Pacheco in November 2022. Harrison rebounded with a win in her final PFL bout and is 2-0 since joining the UFC, beating former champion Holly Holm by second-round submission (rear-naked choke) at UFC 300 and then taking out Ketlen Vieira by unanimous decision at UFC 307.
For several months, Julianna Pena has trashed Harrison in the media and at press conferences, including steroid accusations – Harrison has never flunked such a test.
“I think it just, for me, it kind of screams insecurity,” Harrison told MMA Fighting. “When I see her talk or when I hear her some of the stuff she says, I feel like it’s fear. And it’s not personal for me. She could say whatever she wants about me. At the end of the day, we get locked in a cage, and that’s where I’m gonna do my talking. … Before I signed with UFC it was like, ‘Well, if she wants to be in a real promotion, she has to make a real weight and 135 is where it’s at,’ and so then I signed with the UFC and I cut down to 135 pounds, and now I’m a weight bully, but that’s the only weight class they have. It’s not my choice, and the steroids thing is just like, again, it’s funny to me. I’ve never taken steroids.”
The 5-foot-8 Harrison, a southpaw, has a reach of 66 inches and her bouts average 10:54. She lands 2.75 significant strikes per minute with 64 per cent accuracy and absorbs 1.19 with 64 per cent defence. Her takedown average is 2.75 per 15 minutes with 30 per cent accuracy, and her takedown defence is 100 percent.
Harrison’s wins have been very spread out with seven by submission and six each by decision and KO/TKO. Her favoured method Saturday is via submission at +125, followed by decision at +200 and KO/TKO/DQ at +300. That she wins in Round 1 is +350. That the bout goes the distance is +165 with no at -235.
