UFC 205: Preliminary Card Odds and Predictions

This Saturday’s UFC 205 card in the promotion’s first-ever event at the world’s most famous arena, New York City’s Madison Square Garden, and could be the best overall card in UFC history. The company wanted to make a splash now that MMA is legal again after a nearly 20-year ban in the state of New York. You can check out Sports Interaction’s preview of the main card, but here’s a look at the four preliminary events to build a potential bankroll. The prelims are scheduled to begin around 8 p.m. ET. Check out Sports Interaction’s full UFC 205 betting page.

Frankie Edgar vs. Jeremy Stephens

Records: Edgar (20-5-1), Stephens (25-12)
Division: Featherweight
UFC Odds: Edgar -360, Stephens +250; O/U 2.5 rounds
Prediction: Edgar by decision at -110

Edgar was hoping to fight on this card against featherweight champion Conor McGregor, but of course he’s in the headline bout of UFC 205 against lightweight champion Eddie Alvarez. Edgar, a former lightweight champion, fought for the interim featherweight crown at UFC 200 against Jose Aldo but lost by unanimous decision (Aldo has since said he’s leaving the UFC). Edgar entered that having won five fights in a row. Stephens is a former lightweight who beat ex-bantamweight champion Renan Barao back in May by unanimous decision. But Stephens has still dropped three of his past five. A total of 17 of his wins are by knockout.

Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Michael Johnson

Records: Nurmagomedov (23-0), Johnson (17-10)
Division: Lightweight
UFC Odds: Nurmagomedov -295, Johnson +215; O/U 2.5 rounds
Prediction: Nurmagomedov by submission at +350

The Russian Nurmagomedov’s 23-fight winning streak is the longest among active UFC fighters. Seven of those have come since he joined the UFC from ProFC. He was last in the Octagon in April and beat Darrell Horcher by second-round TKO. That was his first fight since April 2014 when he beat eventual lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos by unanimous decision. Nurmagomedov was hoping to fight current lightweight king Alvarez and might get his shot if both win Saturday. Johnson publicly asked for this fight. He ended a two-fight losing streak in September with a first-round KO of Dustin Poirier. Six of Johnson’s loss are by submission.

Vicente Luque vs. Belal Muhammad

Records: Luque (10-5-1), Muhammad (10-1)
Division: Welterweight
UFC Odds: Luque -165, Muhammad +125; O/U 2.5 rounds
Prediction: Luque by TKO

Luque, a 24-year-old Brazilian, is replacing Lyman Good, who was removed from the event after being flagged for a potential doping violation. Luque won a third straight fight in September, beating Hector Urbina by first-round KO. Luque has earned nine of his 10 career victories by stoppage, including all three in the UFC. Muhammad bounced back from his first career loss, in July to Alan Jouban, with a third-round TKO win over Augusto Montano in September. Six of Muhammad’s career wins are by decision. He has five takedowns in two UFC fights.

Rashad Evans vs. Tim Kennedy

Records: Evans (19-5-1), Kennedy (18-5)
Division: Middleweight
UFC Odds: Kennedy -240, Evans +180
Prediction: N/A

This bout was pulled from the card on Tuesday as Evans, the former light-heavyweight champion, was scratched with an undisclosed medical issue as he prepared to drop down to middleweight for the first time. Reportedly, an irregularity found in a pre-fight MRI led the state of New York to refuse to grant Evans a license. Kennedy wasn’t informed until landing in New York on Tuesday and could still get a replacement opponent for Saturday. Kennedy hasn’t fought since a loss to Yoel Romero at UFC 178 in September 2014. He was off doing reality TV. It’s not clear as of this writing which undercard bout would fill this slot if Kennedy doesn’t fight.