UFC 171 odds & picks: Johny Hendricks a Safe Bet vs. Robbie Lawler?

If you ask Johny Hendricks, he’ll tell you he deserves to be the Ultimate Fighting Championship welterweight champion already. On Saturday, he’ll have to prove it in the UFC 171 main event against Robbie Lawler.

Sports Interaction has the odds stacked heavily in Hendricks’ favor. He’s listed as a -400 favorite over Lawler, who’s a +300 underdog.

Get all of your UFC 171 odds and matchups at Sports Interaction

But after suffering a controversial decision loss to Georges St. Pierre at UFC 168, nobody needs to remind Hendricks that anything can happen in the octagon, especially against Lawler. Hendricks certainly has an edge in grappling over his opponent and would be smart to avoid a slugfest with Lawler, who has the power to end the fight with one punch.

Lawler isn’t a one-trick pony, either. He has solid wrestling skills and has been training with guys like Matt Hughes, Jens Pulver and Jeremy Horn since he was a teenager. Lawler began his career when he was just 20 years old and is 22-9 lifetime in MMA. He’s seen a lot in the last 12 years and shouldn’t be surprised by Hendricks.

Still, Hendricks is the better all-around fighter. If you’re looking to boil this matchup down into its simplest factor, just consider that Hendricks was able to take GSP down. All things considered, he should be able to do the same against Lawler. That means if Hendricks stays away from Lawler’s big left hand, he comes away with the title.

But am I betting Hendricks at -400? No way. There are way too many variables for Hendricks to be favored by this much. If anything, I might look at Hendricks to win a decision +225 to get more bang for my buck.

Other UFC 171 bets worth a look:

Tyrone Woodley (+140) vs. Carolos Condit (-182)

Woodley and Condit are two fighters looking for a title shot in a very crowded and competitive welterweight division. There’s no doubt Woodley has the power and skill to make this a short fight, but Condit should handle the big spotlight better. He’s been down this road before and should make the most of this chance.

Pick: Condit

Diego Sanchez (+145) vs. Myles Jury (+185)

Jury has shown the makings of an up-and-comer, but he’s never faced a guy like Sanchez before. Sanchez has the heart and the experience to make him an interesting underdog pick here.

Pick: Sanchez

Jake Shields (+170) vs. Hector Lombard (-227)

Just looking at Lombard, it’s hard to pick against him. He’s humongous. On the downside, he’s been known to be a little reckless. Look for Shields to bide his time early and try to get this fight to the third round.

Pick: Shields