For the second time in their six seasons under head coach Jon Gruden, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers went from last place to first place in one year. But that probably says more about the NFC South Division than it does about this particular team, a division that’s notorious difficult to predict for football betting.
Tampa, as we recall, won the Super Bowl in Gruden’s first year here. And the Bucs went 9-7 last year to win their third South Division title, before losing a home playoff game to the eventual-champion New York Giants. But the Buccaneers are just 48-48 in six regular seasons under Gruden, and haven’t won a playoff game the last five seasons. And they had the benefit of playing a weak schedule last year, with just five games against teams that eventually made the playoffs.
Piloted by now-38-year-old QB Jeff Garcia, Tampa Bay ranked 18th in the league in total offense last year at 327 YPG, and 11th in rushing at 117 YPG. The defense was again the strength of this team last year, ranking second overall at 278 YPG and 17th vs. the run at 108 YPG. Tampa also ranked sixth in the league in total yardage at +49 YPG and 13th in time-of-possession at +:54 per game. And the Buccaneers posted a +15 turnover ratio, fourth-best in the league. Unfortunately for the Bucs this season, that particular statistic tends to balance out over the course of two or three seasons.
The Bucs went 9-7 vs. the NFL betting lines last year, 6-2 ATS at home, and 6-3 vs. the numbers as favorites. And while Tampa games averaged a modest 38 total points per last year, the totals went 9-7.
This season, despite a flirtation with Brett Favre, Garcia remains the starting QB. And although he posted a 94.6 passing rating last year, this team’s passing attack cannot be said to be real dangerous. With RB Carnell Williams still struggling with a severe knee injury, Earnest Graham and the re-signed Warrick Dunn will be asked to carry the running game. And while WR Joey Galloway remains a threat, he’s now 36 years old. In fact, the Bucs are old in several spots, including on defense, with 35-year-old DE Kevin Carter, 35-year-old LB Derrick Brooks, and 33-year-old CB Ronde Barber.
The NFC South is wide open again this year; three teams – Tampa, New Orleans and Carolina – can be said to have reasonable chances to win the division crown. And the Bucs’ schedule is even easier this year, with just four games vs. teams that made the playoffs last season. But it may take more than nine wins to make the postseason in the NFC this time around.
Related posts:
- NFC South: Football Betting Preview
- Indianapolis Colts
- Buffalo Bills
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Oakland Raiders
