Cardinals, Pirates Get Ready for Season-Defining Series

Frank Doyle looks forward to the weekend series at PNC Park between the Cardinals and the Pirates.

The MLB odds on the Cards beating the Pirates in any particular game since the 21^st Century began are -200. Pittsburgh can only win one in three, irrespective of where the game is played. In fact, the Pirates’ home record against St Louis is worse than their road record – 31-59, .344, in Pittsburgh as against 33-56, .371, at St Louis. Who’d turn up to get his or her heart broken, no matter how pretty the ballpark?

But the Pirates have sold out PNC Park this weekend for the series against the Cardinals. All of sudden it’s a whole new deal.

Pittsburgh is tied with Milwaukee at the top of the National League Central. St Louis is one game back, Cincinnati four. Pittsburgh knows that if it wants to stay in contention it’s got to take on the big dog and there is no bigger dog in the Central Division than St Louis, year in, year out.

Pittsburgh is 2-1 against St Louis so far this year – three games played in St Louis back in April –  but there are twelve games left in the season series, nine of them in Pittsburgh.

In other words, this weekend is the weekend when Pittsburgh finds out whether or not it’s for real. If Pittsburgh can win this series, then there’s a strong case to be made for buying players, just as the Brewers bought Francisco Rodriguez from the Mets ten days ago. If not, then the Pirates have to remain patient and just try to finish as high as they can, accepting that the playoffs aren’t going to happen.

Tonight’s pitching matchup sees St Louis’ Chris Carpenter, 5-7, 3.69 ERA, face the Pirates’ Paul Maholm, 6-9, 3.06 ERA. Carpenter is one of the most under-rated pitchers of his era; the Pirates, who do not possess the most explosive offense in the Major Leagues, will struggle to get a piece of him.

On Saturday, Kevin Correia, the Pirates’ opening day starter, takes the hill but he faces St Louis’ Jaime Garcia, 9-4, 3.11 ERA. That’s a tough ask for Correia, 11-4, 4.04 ERA, who’s beginning to show the strain from pitching long into the sixth and seventh inning in games.

If the Pirates can win either of those first two games, they stand a chance of taking the series on Sunday, when Charlie Morton faces Kyle Lohse. But if they’re 0-2 they’re fighting to stop the sweep, and getting swept would be bad news for a team that then has to visit Atlanta and Philly the following week. It’s a really big series tonight by the banks of the Allegheny.