World Junior Hockey Championships Prediction: Russia vs. Canada

Andrew Rogers
January 4, 2021

Both teams used stalwart defensive efforts to advance to the final four, with the Russians ousting Germany 2-1 in the quarterfinals and Canada cruising to a 3-0 triumph over the Czech Republic. The sides have allowed just 14 goals through their first 10 combined tournament games.

2021 IIHF World Junior Championship Odds

Oddsmakers aren’t expecting the Russians to be all that competitive here, making Canada an overwhelming favourite to return to the title game. But while Canada pulled out a thrilling 4-3 win over the Russians in last year’s championship, the Russians had actually won the previous two meetings by a combined score of 8-1. The Canadians have won eight of the previous 14 tournament meetings with Russia, outscoring their opponents 50-45 over that stretch.

The biggest difference between Monday’s semifinal and Canada’s previous five games: The total, which is set at a minuscule 5.5 (with the Under at -143). Canada seems content to bust out to an early lead and then let its impressive back end take care of the rest, evidenced by the fact that the tournament hosts have surrendered just four goals so far. Russia is on a similar path, having allowed more than two goals just twice in the tournament.

Team Russia

The Russians have revenge – and redemption – on their minds after squandering a 3-1 third-period lead in last year’s crushing championship defeat. And they’ll have an important piece back in the lineup Monday, with Toronto Maple Leafs prospect Mikhail Abramov returning to action after missing the win over Germany for slew footing. The Russians are led up front by fellow Maple Leafs pick Rodion Amirov, who has six points in five games.

Team Canada

You can’t help but feel like this year’s matchup against Russia will be vastly different from last year’s title game showdown. For one thing, the Canadians have been getting off to sizzling starts all tournament long, scoring inside the first 8 ½ minutes in all five of their games (and inside the opening five minutes on four occasions). It’s a major reason why the Canadians have yet to trail at any point in the tournament.