Toronto has sprung a leak at the wrong time as Thursday night’s 3-2 home loss to Florida has given the Panthers a four-point lead on the Leafs for top spot in the Atlantic Division.

Ottawa is in the opposite boat as they rode to a fifth straight win, 6-3 against Boston on Thursday. The Sens are now securely locked in the Eastern Conference’s top wild-card spot, five points up on the Blue Jackets and Rangers.

Toronto is a -160 favourite to win on the NHL odds, with the total pegged at 6.0.

Senators vs. Maple Leafs NHL Betting Odds

Ottawa won both previous games this season, outscoring the Maple Leafs 5-1 in the process. That might not sound like a big deal in the regular season, but remember, these teams very well could meet in the playoffs. Washington is running away with the conference, which means the winner of the Atlantic will face the top wild-card team in the first round, which looks like it will be the Senators.

If Toronto does end up retaking the Atlantic Division lead and Ottawa holds onto the top wild-card spot, it would set up the first playoff edition of the Battle of Ontario since 2004. The Leafs won that series in seven games, improving to 16-8 all-time in the playoffs versus the Senators.

Looking at more recent action, Ottawa is 5-1 in their last six games against Toronto. That doesn’t bode well for a struggling Leafs team that enters Saturday with losses in four of their last five games overall.

Neither team has paid bettors as a cover option this season, but Toronto holds a very slim edge on Saturday. The Leafs are 17-16 against the spread at home, while the Senators are 16-18 ATS on the road.

High scoring games have been a trend for both teams in recent weeks. Toronto has hit the Over in seven of their last 10 games and Ottawa has finished above the number in 13 of 15.

Ottawa Senators

The Senators’ five-game win streak has put them in a great position to break a seven-year playoff drought. Drake Batherson was the hero on Thursday, breaking a 10-game scoreless drought with two goals and an assist. Claude Giroux, Shane Pinto, Ridly Greig and Tyler Kleven also tickled the twine. Trade deadline acquisition Dylan Cozens has fit in seamlessly in Kanata, recording a point in all four games he’s played in a Sens uniform.

Linus Ullmark will likely get the start in net on Saturday. Ullmark made 22 saves in a win against his former Bruins team on Thursday and when healthy he’s been a big reason why Ottawa is in a playoff position. The 31-year-old Swede hasn’t lost in regulation in the month of March, posting a 5-0-1 record with a 2.80 goals-against average and .913 save percentage.

Toronto Maple Leafs

The Leafs went into Thursday’s game with a unified message that they would treat it like a playoff game and boy did they ever. William Nylander (one assist), Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner combined for a single point against a Panthers team missing major pieces in Matthew Tkachuk, Aaron Ekblad and Brad Marchand. Even the return of Chris Tanev from a six-game injury absence couldn’t spark Toronto to come in clutch when it mattered most. It has to be concerning that a team known for playoff failures would come up with a performance like Thursday’s in a game they described as a playoff atmosphere.

There’s been no word on a starter in net between Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll. Stolarz has been the hotter goalie this season, posting a 13-7-3 record with a 2.37 GAA and .920 SV. Woll is 22-12-0 with a 2.78 GAA and .905 SV. Stolarz, who turned aside 22 of 25 shots faced against Florida, probably has the edge as the Game 1 playoff starter, so he likely has the edge to start against Ottawa.

NHL Prediction: Who Will Win Senators vs. Maple Leafs?

• Regular Season
• Playoffs

Senators Team Leaders

OTT

Points	Tim Stutzle 79
+ / -	Nick Jensen 18
Shots	Brady Tkachuk 296
Penalty Mins	Brady Tkachuk 123
Wins	Linus Ullmark 25
GAA	Leevi Merilainen 1.99

TOR

Points	Mitch Marner 102
+ / -	Jake McCabe 23
Shots	Auston Matthews 261
Penalty Mins	Max Domi 76
Wins	Joseph Woll 27
GAA	Anthony Stolarz 2.14

OTT

Points	Drake Batherson 1
+ / -	Artem Zub 1
Shots	Brady Tkachuk 10
Penalty Mins	Dylan Cozens 10
Wins	Drake Batherson 0
GAA	Linus Ullmark 4.39

TOR

Points	John Tavares 4
+ / -	Auston Matthews 2
Shots	Auston Matthews 9
Penalty Mins	Nicholas Robertson 6
Wins	Anthony Stolarz 2
GAA	Anthony Stolarz 1.95

• Regular Season
• Playoffs

Maple Leafs Team Leaders

OTT

Points	Tim Stutzle 79
+ / -	Nick Jensen 18
Shots	Brady Tkachuk 296
Penalty Mins	Brady Tkachuk 123
Wins	Linus Ullmark 25
GAA	Leevi Merilainen 1.99

TOR

Points	Mitch Marner 102
+ / -	Jake McCabe 23
Shots	Auston Matthews 261
Penalty Mins	Max Domi 76
Wins	Joseph Woll 27
GAA	Anthony Stolarz 2.14

OTT

Points	Drake Batherson 1
+ / -	Artem Zub 1
Shots	Brady Tkachuk 10
Penalty Mins	Dylan Cozens 10
Wins	Drake Batherson 0
GAA	Linus Ullmark 4.39

TOR

Points	John Tavares 4
+ / -	Auston Matthews 2
Shots	Auston Matthews 9
Penalty Mins	Nicholas Robertson 6
Wins	Anthony Stolarz 2
GAA	Anthony Stolarz 1.95

Injuries

Ottawa

Thomas Chabot (D)

Out Thurs Rest - 17 / 04 / 25

Hayden Hodgson (RW)

Ques Thurs Lower Body - 15 / 04 / 25

Ridly Greig (C)

Ques Tues Undisclosed - 13 / 04 / 25

Nick Jensen (D)

Ques Tues Lower Body - 17 / 03 / 25

Travis Hamonic (D)

Ques Sat Lower Body - 08 / 03 / 25

Tyler Kleven (D)

Ques Mar 10 Lower Body - 27 / 02 / 25

Thomas Chabot (D)

Ques Sat Hand - 18 / 02 / 25

Shane Pinto (C)

Ques Sat Upper Body - 05 / 02 / 25

Josh Norris (C)

Out indefinitely Upper Body - 02 / 02 / 25

Nick Cousins (C)

Out indefinitely Lower Body - 25 / 01 / 25

Toronto

Oliver Ekman-Larsson (D)

Ques Sun Undisclosed - 11 / 04 / 25

David Kampf (C)

Ques Thurs Upper Body - 03 / 04 / 25

Jake McCabe (D)

Out indefinitely Undisclosed - 03 / 04 / 25

Steven Lorentz (C)

Ques Wed Undisclosed - 02 / 03 / 25

Joseph Woll (G)

Ques Sun Illness - 28 / 02 / 25

Max Pacioretty (LW)

Out Indefinitely Undisclosed - 20 / 02 / 25

Conor Timmins (D)

Ques Sat Upper Body - 05 / 02 / 25

Oliver Ekman-Larsson (D)

Ques Thurs Lower Body - 01 / 02 / 25

Matthew Knies (LW)

Prob Sat Upper Body - 23 / 01 / 25

Connor Dewar (C)

Out indefinitely Upper Body - 21 / 01 / 25

Injuries

Ottawa

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Thomas Chabot (D)	Out Thurs	Rest - 17 / 04 / 25	1-2	3-0	+ -
Chabot will not dress in Thursday's game against the Hurricanes, he will rest.
Hayden Hodgson (RW)	Ques Thurs	Lower Body - 15 / 04 / 25	1-3	4-0	+ -
Hodgson is bothered by a lower-body injury, and it is unclear if he will play Game 3 of playoff against the Maple Leafs on Thursday.
Ridly Greig (C)	Ques Tues	Undisclosed - 13 / 04 / 25	2-3	5-0	+ -
Greig is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will return to action against the Blackhawks on Tuesday.
Nick Jensen (D)	Ques Tues	Lower Body - 17 / 03 / 25	7-11	9-7-2	+ -
Jensen is dealing with a lower-body injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against the Sabres on Tuesday.
Travis Hamonic (D)	Ques Sat	Lower Body - 08 / 03 / 25	9-14	13-8-2	+ -
Hamonic missed the last four contests due to a lower body injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against the Maple Leafs on Saturday.
Tyler Kleven (D)	Ques Mar 10	Lower Body - 27 / 02 / 25	11-15	15-9-2	+ -
Kleven dealing with a lower body injury, and it is undetermined if he will suit up against the Red Wings on Monday, March 10th.
Thomas Chabot (D)	Ques Sat	Hand - 18 / 02 / 25	11-17	17-9-2	+ -
Chabot suffered a cut on his hand, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against the Canadians on Saturday.
Shane Pinto (C)	Ques Sat	Upper Body - 05 / 02 / 25	12-18	19-9-2	+ -
Pinto is dealing with an upper-body injury, and it is uncertain if he will face the Sharks on Saturday.
Josh Norris (C)	Out indefinitely	Upper Body - 02 / 02 / 25	14-18	21-9-2	+ -
Norris is out of commission due to a mid-body injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.
Nick Cousins (C)	Out indefinitely	Lower Body - 25 / 01 / 25	16-20	22-12-2	+ -
Cousins underwent knee surgery, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

Toronto

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Oliver Ekman-Larsson (D)	Ques Sun	Undisclosed - 11 / 04 / 25	4-2	3-3	+ -
Ekman-Larsson is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will dress for Game 1 of the playoffs versus Senators on Sunday.
David Kampf (C)	Ques Thurs	Upper Body - 03 / 04 / 25	5-4	3-6	+ -
Kamf is fighting off an upper body injury, and it is unclear if he will play Game 3 of the playoffs versus the Senators on Thursday.
Jake McCabe (D)	Out indefinitely	Undisclosed - 03 / 04 / 25	5-4	3-6	+ -
McCabe is nursing an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.
Steven Lorentz (C)	Ques Wed	Undisclosed - 02 / 03 / 25	11-14	12-12-1	+ -
Lorentz is hampered with an undisclosed injury, and it is up in the air if he will participate against the Golden Knights on Wednesday.
Joseph Woll (G)	Ques Sun	Illness - 28 / 02 / 25	11-15	13-12-1	+ -
Woll is dealing with an illness, it is unclear if he will play against the Penguins on Sunday
Max Pacioretty (LW)	Out Indefinitely	Undisclosed - 20 / 02 / 25	13-16	15-13-1	+ -
Pacioretty has been placed on the long term injured reserve list with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for return.
Conor Timmins (D)	Ques Sat	Upper Body - 05 / 02 / 25	16-16	17-14-1	+ -
Timmins suffered an upper body injury, and it is unclear if he will take part in Saturday's clash against the Hurricanes.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson (D)	Ques Thurs	Lower Body - 01 / 02 / 25	16-17	17-15-1	+ -
Ekman-Larsson missed the previous game with a lower body injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be active against the Kraken on Thursday.
Matthew Knies (LW)	Prob Sat	Upper Body - 23 / 01 / 25	17-19	18-17-1	+ -
Knies is nursing an upper-body injury, but he is likely to be active against the Oilers on Saturday.
Connor Dewar (C)	Out indefinitely	Upper Body - 21 / 01 / 25	18-19	19-17-1	+ -
Dewar has landed on the injured reserve list with an upper body injury, and he is without a definitive timetable for recovery.