Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction, NHL Odds

Payton Matthews | Updated Feb 16, 2021

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Evgenii Dadonov was the hero on Monday against the Leafs. Dadonov capped off the Senators four goal comeback by tying the game late in the third before scoring the OT winner.

February 17, 2021, 7:00 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
Puckline +1.5 +109
Moneyline +275
Over / Under o +6.5


Betting Action


Puckline -1.5 -131
Moneyline -335
Over / Under u +6.5


Betting Action


It’s the second game of a three-game Battle of Ontario series from Scotiabank Arena on Wednesday with the Toronto Maple Leafs as sizeable favourites on the NHL odds over the Ottawa Senators. The total opened at 6.5 goals.

Senators vs. Maple Leafs Betting Analysis

Not too long ago, we wrote that it was wise to simply bet against the Ottawa Senators in every road game this season because the Sens weren’t likely to win more than a handful of them this year. However, bettors were going to have to be ready to suffer a big-time loss once in a while, and that’s what happened Monday with Ottawa’s shocking 6-5 upset in Toronto.

The Senators are now 3-7-0 away from home and they were underdogs of +260, +200 and +270 in those three victories. They actually now have more road victories than several other clubs in the NHL. Toronto, meanwhile, might be kicking itself if it loses out on, say, the North Division title by one point after Monday’s loss. The Leafs are now 6-2-1 at home.

The total has gone Over in seven of the past eight meetings at Scotiabank Arena between these teams and it was way Over Monday.

Ottawa Senators

It’s extremely rare for the NHL to lead ESPN’s “SportsCenter” in the USA on a given night, but Ottawa’s rally from a 5-1 deficit to win Monday’s game was the lead story in the 11:30 p.m. ET show. Ottawa had trailed by at least four goals in 240 regular-season games prior to Monday and was 0-237-3 in those contests. The Sens also became the first team this season to win a game after facing a four-goal deficit. There were five such instances last season.

Evgenii Dadonov tied the game Monday at 5-5 at 17:59 of the third and then his sixth goal of the season at 2:19 of OT on a breakaway won it. Dadonov became the fourth Senators player ever to score a tying goal in the final five minutes of regulation and an overtime winner in the same game and was clearly the game’s No. 1 star. Nick Paul got the comeback started with a shorthanded goal with just a few seconds left in the second period.  Marcus Hogberg allowed five goals in the first 39 minutes of the game and then obviously no more. Whether it’s Hogberg again or not here will depend on Matt Murray’s recovery from an upper-body injury. Ottawa is 18-43 in its past 16 after a win.

Toronto Maple Leafs

The Leafs got two goals (league-leading 13 now) and an assist from Auston Matthews, while Travis Boyd (second of season), Pierre Engvall (first) and Joe Thornton (second) in his return from injury all scored. Matthews has at least a point in every game this season but one. Frederik Andersen allowed six goals on 31 shots. The Leafs were 1-for-2 on the power play and continue to rank among the league leaders at 34.8 per cent.

Toronto did make a trade earlier Monday, receiving forward Alex Galchenyuk from the Carolina Hurricanes for forward Egor Korshkov and defenceman David Warsofsky. Galchenyuk appeared in eight games for Ottawa this season as a free-agent signing before being shipped to Carolina on Saturday, but he never played in a game for the Hurricanes. He was the third overall pick by Montreal in the 2012 NHL draft, and because Galchenyuk never left Canada, he won’t need to quarantine before joining the Leafs or the AHL’s Marlies.

NHL Prediction: Who Will Win Senators vs. Maple Leafs?