Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, NHL Odds

Nik Kowalski | Updated Dec 02, 2022


The Leafs and the Lightning meet Saturday night for their first clash since an epic seven-game first-round playoff series last season.

December 03, 2022, 7:00 PM ET
Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay
Puckline +1.5 -247
Moneyline +102
Over / Under o +6


Betting Action


Puckline -1.5 +205
Moneyline -123
Over / Under u +6


Betting Action


The Lightning ultimately took that series and lost in the Stanley Cup Final, extending Toronto’s 18-year playoff series win drought. 

But the Leafs are as good as ever in the present day, with zero regulation losses in their last 10 outings. Toronto’s second in the Atlantic Division at 15-5-5, and the Lightning are right behind at 14-8-1. Saturday also kicks off a six-game home stand for Tampa Bay.

Puck drop at Amalie Arena gets started at 7 p.m. EST, with Tampa Bay a -130 moneyline favourite and the over-under at six on the NHL odds.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning NHL Betting Odds

Toronto comes in having a flawless record over their last six road games, and also being 7-3-2 on the road for the season. Tampa Bay’s quite dominant at home though with a 7-3-1 record on home ice. The over is also 8-3 in Tampa’s 11 home games, and 8-2 in the last 10 Maple Leafs–Lightning matchups.

Tampa Bay ranks sixth in scoring this season, potting 3.48 goals per game. Toronto’s a top three squad when it comes to keeping pucks out of their net, allowing 2.48 goals per game. Over a current five-game win streak, Toronto’s let in just eight goals.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Toronto’s been getting stout goaltending from a trio of goalies this season, but it’s now a healthy Matt Murray’s crease. Murray, who will start Saturday at Tampa Bay, has a 5-1-1 record this season to go with a .927 save percentage. As a team Toronto’s still getting a .916 save percentage from Murray, backup Ilya Samsonov, and Erik Kallgren.

Both Auston Matthews and Mitchell Marner found the back of the net the last time Toronto took the ice, a 3-1 win over San Jose Wednesday. Marner’s goal extended his point streak to a franchise record-tying 18 games, so something to look out for Saturday. Marner also leads the club with 29 points, but Matthews and captain John Tavares are hot on his tail with 27 and 26 points respectively. 

Tampa Bay Lightning

Steven Stamkos recorded his 1,000th point in Thursday’s 4-1 victory at Philadelphia, becoming the first place in franchise history to do so. Stamkos is also six goals away from 500, and 55 games away from 1,000. He’s now second on the team in points with 28, and first with 13 goals. Nikita Kucherov continues to lead the Lightning with 35 points in 23 games, reasserting just how dominant he can be when healthy.

Andrei Vasilevskiy picked up his ninth win of the season Thursday. Despite having a .908 save percentage on the season, Vasilevskiy’s allowed two or fewer goals in four of his last five starts.

NHL Prediction: Who Will Win Maple Leafs vs. Lightning?