Montreal Canadiens vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction, NHL Odds

Nik Kowalski | Updated May 06, 2021

auston matthew maple leafs

The Leafs are closing in on clinching first in the North Division, while the Canadiens remain in fourth after losing 5-1 to Ottawa Wednesday.

May 06, 2021, 7:00 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
Puckline +1.5 -132
Moneyline +200
Over / Under o +6


Betting Action


Puckline -1.5 +110
Moneyline -241
Over / Under u +6


Betting Action


A Montreal–Toronto first-round playoff matchup isn’t a guarantee just yet, but a pair of Maple Leafs wins over the Canadiens would make it all but official. With a few games to go in the 2021 regular season, Montreal is heading in to Toronto for a two-game series starting Thursday and concluding Saturday. And they’ll likely be visiting again in May.

Puck drop at Scotiabank Arena Thursday is 7 p.m. EST.

Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs 5/6/21 Betting Analysis

Toronto’s taken five of eight games against Montreal in 2021, but it’s the Habs who are winners of two of the last three contests including a 3-2 overtime win Monday. Rookie Cole Caufield scored his second career overtime winner in his fifth NHL game to defeat the Leafs then.

The Leafs have a North Division-best seven regulation losses at home in 2021. On the other hand Montreal has a league-high seven overtime losses on the road. The home team is 4-4 in the eight Montreal–Toronto games this season. Toronto’s a -210 favourite on the NHL odds.

Montreal Canadiens

Montreal rolled in to Ottawa on a three-game win streak, and perhaps with some complacency as they took a crucial 5-1 loss to the already-eliminated Senators. Joel Edmundson’s third of the season kept it tied at one after 20 but Ottawa powered through for four goals in the final 40.

Jake Allen allowed five goals on 34 shots, dropping his record to 11-10-4 with a .910 save percentage. With the start in Ottawa, Allen tied Carey Price with 25 games on the season. Price, who’s been out with a concussion since April 19, is joining Montreal on the trip to Toronto.

Wednesday also snapped a three-game scoring streak for team-leading scorer Tyler Toffoli, who’s three tallies shy of his career-high 31 back in 2015–16.

Toronto Maple Leafs

At 33-13-6 Toronto’s held the top spot in the North for months now. A late run by the second-place Edmonton Oilers has closed the gap to six points but time is running out. If the Leafs do clinch first, it’ll be their first division title since the 1999–2000 season.

2021’s also Toronto’s fifth-straight playoff appearance and just so happens to be Auston Matthews’ fifth season. It’s well-documented that the Leafs haven’t won a playoff series since 2004, but 17 years later they’re entering with a whole new level of a superstar. Matthews’ 39 goals in 48 games (.81 goals per game) is the best scoring rate since 1995-96 and would equate to 66 goals over a normal 82-game season. He’ll likely hit 40 before his 50th game.

NHL Prediction: Who Will Win Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs?