This will be the first time that the new building in Minnesota has hosted the big game but second time for that (ultra) cold-weather city. Let’s break down some of Sports Interaction’s team props for the Philadelphia Eagles vs. the New England Patriots. There will be plenty more Super Bowl betting coverage all week.
Super Bowl LII Team Prop Bets
Patriots’ First-Quarter Woes
Let’s preface this statement by saying all betting trends are meant to be broken at some point, but: history has shown that you should expect a very low-scoring first quarter Sunday. This is the record eighth Super Bowl for the Patriots under Coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady, a record for a coach and QB. New England has won five of the previous seven. Yet it has done so despite not scoring a single first-quarter point in any of those games! That’s almost impossible.
On the bright side, the Patriots have allowed first-quarter points in just three of the games and no more than 9. The last New England loss in the game was following the 2011 season when the New York Giants led 9-0 after a quarter. Last year’s 34-28 overtime Patriots win over the Atlanta Falcons, the first Super Bowl OT, was scoreless after one. New England trailed this season’s playoff opener to the Tennessee Titans 7-0 but led the Jacksonville Jaguars 3-0 after one.
The first quarter is the highest-scoring quarter of Super Bowl LII at +250. The favourite is the second at +150. Last year, the second was the highest-scoring with the Falcons holding a 21-3 edge. The third quarter is the longest shot at +300 – that makes some sense since both teams will be making adjustments during intermission.
Eagles Must Focus on Defense
The two Super Bowls the Patriots have lost in this era were both to the Giants and what those Giants teams were able to do was get pressure on Brady without blitzing much. That will be a key for the Eagles as well, and they do have one of the better defensive fronts in the NFL, led by Pro Bowl tackle Fletcher Cox. The over/under for total sacks in this game is 4.5, with the over a -140 favorite. Brady was sacked 35 times during the regular season, one of the higher total of his career. The Patriots defense ranked seventh with 42 sacks, and that’s not counting a whopping eight in the divisional round vs. Tennessee, while Philadelphia’s totaled 38. Neither Brady nor counterpart Nick Foles is very mobile.
That the first Super Bowl turnover is an interception is a -185 favourite, with a fumble at +130. You win the turnover battle, you usually win an NFL game. Philadelphia ranked fourth in the league during the season with 31 takeaways (19 interceptions and 12 fumble recoveries). Brady was picked off just eight times and fumbled five. New England forced just 18 turnovers (12 interceptions and six fumble recoveries). Foles threw two interceptions in 101 passes in the regular season but hasn’t been picked off in these playoffs.
The over/under for field goals made is 3.5, with the under a -135 favorite. It’s two good kickers in New England’s Stephen Gostkowski and Philadelphia rookie Jake Elliott. Gostkowski was 37-for-40 on field-goal tries with a long of 62, while Elliott was 26 of 31 with a long of 61. The longest field goal made scored in the game is set at 46.5 yards, with the over a -140 favorite. The record long is 54 yards by Buffalo’s Steve Christie in SB XXVIII.
Super Bowl Team Prop Predictions
No on the Patriots to score in every quarter. The fourth quarter at +165 as the highest-scoring – bet against the first in each highest-scoring quarter prop. Over 46.5 yards as the longest field goal in that dome but under 3.5 total field goals made. First drive outcome: punt at -120. Eagles at -150 on most rushing yards – they will want to run as much as possible to keep Brady off the field.