If you go simply by the starting quarterbacks, Tom Brady vs. Nick Foles, Sunday’s Super Bowl LII from Minneapolis between the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles looks like a mismatch. But stranger things have happened.
Let’s break down some quarterback and other Sports Interaction Super Bowl betting and player props for the big game this weekend.
Another MVP For Brady?
The Super Bowl MVP is annually one of the most-wagered props on the final game of the NFL season. To no surprise, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is the -130 favourite – the NFL is 100 per cent a quarterback league first, and they are always favoured for MVP in this game. Brady won a record fourth MVP last season in leading that unbelievable overtime comeback victory over the Atlanta Falcons.
Brady set Super Bowl records in completions (43), attempts (62) and yards (466) in the victory. He had been tied with boyhood idol Joe Montana with three Super Bowl MVPs. Quarterbacks have won the award 28 times, which is obviously more than every other position combined since this is the 52nd Super Bowl. Brady is given over/under game totals of 25 completions, 37 attempts, 285.5 yards, two TD passes (can also get 2.5) and 0.5 interceptions. When he last faced the Eagles in a Week 13 home loss in 2015, Brady was 29-for-56 for 312 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. This Philadelphia defence is much better than that one, ranking No. 4 in total defence and in scoring this regular season. It was a little more susceptible against the pass, ranking 17th in yards allowed.
Brady’s counterpart, Nick Foles, is only playing because starter Carson Wentz tore his ACL in a Week 14 win at the Los Angeles Rams. Foles is attempting to become the 10th backup QB to win a Super Bowl and is the +310 second-favourite to win MVP honors. He would be an unlikely one, at least in terms of regular-season production. Foles is given totals of 21.5 completions, 33 attempts, 232.5 passing yards, 1.5 TD passes (can also get 2) and 0.5 interceptions. He goes against a New England defence that ranked 30th in the NFL in passing yards allowed during the regular season. On head-to-head props, Foles is +27.5 on yards against Brady and +135 to throw the game’s first TD pass with Brady at -190.
Super Bowl LII Receiving & Rushing Props
New England’s second most important player on offence is Pro Bowl tight end Rob Gronkowski, who has been practicing after leaving the AFC title game with a concussion. Gronk is a third-favourite to win the game’s MVP, which no tight end has ever done. He’s the +200 favourite to have 100 yards receiving and given game totals of 5 catches and 72.5 yards. To score the game’s first touchdown, he’s a +800 co-favourite with teammate and running back Dion Lewis. Gronk is -115 to score a touchdown anytime.
The Eagles have a Pro Bowl tight end of their own in Zach Ertz, who is +3100 for MVP honours. He’s +600 to reach 100 yards, given totals of 5 catches and 55.5 yards and is +1200 as the game’s first TD scorer.
One key Philadelphia player was a big part of last year’s Patriots Super Bowl team: running back LeGarrette Blount. He wasn’t a huge factor this regular season for the Eagles, especially after they acquired tailback Jay Ajayi around midseason from the Dolphins. Blount did have a touchdown run in each NFC playoff game, however, and is a beast at the goal line at 6-foot, 250 pounds. He’s +4500 for Super Bowl MVP and +225 to score a touchdown anytime. The Eagles surely would love to give him the opportunity after the Patriots opted not to bring him back this season. Ajayi, meanwhile, is the +300 favourite for a 100-yard rushing game. Blount is +2500 there. He only had one all season.
Super Bowl LII Player Prop Predictions
Brady likely wins another MVP but worth a longer-shot look on the Patriots’ Lewis at +2000 for MVP – even though no running back has won it this century — as he could get 10-15 carries and has been targeted 16 times as a receiver in these playoffs. Yes on touchdowns for both Gronk and Blount (who scores the game’s first). Both quarterbacks throw an interception. Take Brady -27.5 yards (-150) vs. Foles as the Eagles are going to run as much as possible.