Steelers vs. Browns Point Spread: NFL Week 8 Odds, Prediction

Jordan Ramsay | Updated Oct 28, 2021

With the status of Baker Mayfield still up in the air, the Cleveland Browns will need continued success from last week's breakout star, D'Ernest Johnson.

AT
October 31, 2021, 1:00 PM ET
FirstEnergy Stadium
Cleveland
8-9
Pointspread +5 -118
Moneyline +179
Over / Under o +43

68%

Betting Action

32%

Pointspread -5 -102
Moneyline -215
Over / Under u +43

68%

Betting Action

32%

It’s a divisional matchup in the AFC North as the Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Cleveland to face the Browns Sunday afternoon.  The Steelers should be feeling fresh after last week’s bye, while Cleveland got a huge performance from backup quarterback Case Keenum and third-string running back D’Ernest Johnson in their Week 7 win over Denver.

The Browns are 3.5-point favourites to win on the NFL odds, with a total of 42.5.  Keep in mind, those numbers could be subject to significant change based on the status of Cleveland’s Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

This game serves as a rematch of last year’s divisional round, which saw the Browns upset the Steelers in Pittsburgh and get their first playoff win since 1994.  They also split last year’s regular season series, with the home team winning both meetings.  About 64 per cent of early Sports Interaction bettors are favouring the Steelers in this tilt, but that number could change if Mayfield starts.  Two of three total games between these teams last year went above the number, so it’s not surprising to see 73 per cent of action taking the Over.

Pittsburgh is an even 3-3 on the year, but they did manage to pick up two consecutive wins prior to their bye week.  They’re also 13-4-1 in their last 18 games against Cleveland.  The Steelers haven’t been great against the spread in 2021, covering in just one road and one home game.  Four of Pittsburgh’s six games this year have gone Under.

With a 4-3 record, the Browns really only sit ahead of Pittsburgh in the AFC North because they’ve played one more game.  Cleveland has been comfortable at home this year though, winning three of four games at FirstEnergy Stadium.  Like their straight up record, the Browns are 4-3 ATS.  They’ve hit the Over twice at home and twice on the road.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Steelers Nation was fired up after their 23-20 overtime win against Seattle in Week 6, but it’s worth noting that they faced Geno Smith at quarterback, not Russell WilsonT.J. Watt was the hero, strip-sacking Smith in overtime, which led to the game-winning field goal.  Watt had two sacks on the day, knocked down three balls and recorded three tackles for a loss.  Remember when management tried to play hardball with Watt’s new contract until virtually the last minute before the regular season?

The biggest issue for Pittsburgh is Ben Roethlisberger‘s sharp decline in play.  Roethlisberger was 29-for-40 in Week 6, finishing with 229 passing yards and a touchdown, but he’s only thrown for multiple touchdowns once this year.  The offence will need to rely heavily on rookie running back Najee Harris.  The 24th overall pick in 2021, Harris ran for 84 yards last week and caught his second receiving touchdown of the season.

Cleveland Browns

Keenum definitely didn’t put up video game numbers last week against Denver, but he proved he can give Cleveland a chance to win if Mayfield’s shoulder injury doesn’t allow him to play.  In his first start in two years, Keenum was 21-for-33 last week, finishing with 199 passing yards and a touchdown.  There’s been no word on who will start under centre this week, but Mayfield has been taking a lot of reps in practice.

The injury bug doesn’t end with Mayfield.  Chubb and Kareen Hunt, the top two running backs on the depth chart, both missed the Denver game because of calf injuries.  There’s been no word on Chubb’s status for Sunday, but Hunt is on injured reserve and ruled out.  Look for Johnson to get reps regardless of Chubb’s status.  Johnson had a monster breakout game last week, rushing for 146 yards and a touchdown.  That’s a pretty amazing stat line from a guy who only had 199 total career rushing yards and no touchdowns entering the game.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Steelers vs. Browns?

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